The Duke Blue Devils take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, KY. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Duke is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -440. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Duke vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for December 8, 2024.
Duke vs Louisville Prediction
My Pick: Duke -9.5 (Play to -11)
My Duke vs Louisville best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Duke vs Louisville Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 144.5 -108 / 112- | -440 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 144.5 -108 / -112 | +340 |
- Duke vs Louisville spread: Duke -9.5
- Duke vs Louisville over/under: 144.5
- Duke vs Louisville moneyline: Duke -440, Louisville +340
- Duke vs Louisville best bet: Duke -9.5 (Play to -11)
Spread
I like Duke on the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Duke -9.5 (Play to -11)
Duke vs Louisville College Basketball Betting Preview
Duke Basketball
Most teams haven't played a true road game yet, but Duke is one of the few high-major teams that weren't scared to play away from home (in Tucson against Arizona). The Blue Devils defeated the Wildcats 69-55, and Duke will look to remain unscathed in true road touts in this one.
The most impressive thing about Duke is its ability to win games in different ways. Against Arizona, Duke had to win a defensive struggle. Against Auburn, Duke struggled to slow the Tigers' dominant offense, so it responded by tallying 1.33 PPP.
Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach is the most well-known freshman trio in college hoops for a good reason. All three are bonafide NBA first-rounders and potentially lottery picks. Maluach's and Flagg's defensive prowess helped Duke become KenPom's top-rated defense.
The one freshman people didn't expect to shine in the Auburn win was Isaiah Evans, who barely played in the first seven games, collecting several DNPs. He came out to drop six first-half 3s, becoming yet another weapon in Jon Scheyer's arsenal.
Offensively, Duke attacks far differently than the teams in Scheyer's first two seasons. The Blue Devils didn't shoot a ton of 3s early in Scheyer's tenure, but the script has flipped with the youth movement in Durham (48% of Duke's field goal attempts are coming from distance).
It's not a bad thing, either; Duke shoots 36% from 3, so the rise in volume has worked to Duke's advantage.
A word to the wise: Good luck scoring versus Duke's interior, as it holds foes to 41.5% shooting on 2s. The Cardinals' best hope is hitting 3s — or this one could get ugly.
Louisville Basketball
The dreaded injury bug has hindered the Cardinals in Pat Kelsey's first year at the helm.
Since Coach Kelsey decided to add a pair of injured players in Aly Khalifa and Kobe Rodgers, all it took was one or two injuries to derail Louisville's season. And it's now three additional injuries that have left the Cardinals' roster with eight healthy players.
Losing Koren Johnson and Kasean Pryor for the year are brutal blows. Johnson added some extra depth to Louisville's backcourt, while Pryor led the team in scoring before his injury.
The first game of many with just eight players was a struggle, as Louisville succumbed to Ole Miss, 86-63.
That loss was more a byproduct of Louisville shooting a disastrous 5-for-30 from 3 rather than having almost no depth, though.
Louisville is as live-and-die by shooting as it gets. Coach Kelsey's squad attempts perimeter jumpers on 51% of its field goal attempts but shoots 27% from 3.
With the shooting struggles, Louisville needs to hang its hat on being a defensive team. The Cardinals rank 30th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Perhaps the strong defense can make up for the potential offensive hardships — though, I don't know if I trust Louisville's defense. In the Cardinals' three losses, they surrendered more than 1.08 PPP to Ole Miss, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
That needs to improve if Louisville has a chance to defeat some of the better ACC teams — such as Duke.
Kelsey having a stable of superb guards is nothing new, but he will need the trio of Chucky Hepburn, Terrence Edwards Jr., and Reyne Smith to ball out.
Hepburn and Smith have lived up to expectations and then some, whereas Edwards, who won last year's Sun Belt Player of the Year at James Madison, averages just 10 points per game on 40% shooting and 20% from 3.
He's locked into a starting spot and needs to play better for Louisville to improve.
Duke vs. Louisville Betting Analysis
I can't find a reason to back Louisville here.
Beyond the "road conference game" standpoint, Duke should blow Louisville out here.
It's not like the Cards have dominated home court either, since Tennessee and Ole Miss took temporary residence at the Yum! Center.
I have Duke winning comfortably.
