The Duke Blue Devils take on the Miami Hurricanes in Coral Gables, FL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 22.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -8000. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here are my Duke vs. Miami predictions and college basketball picks for February 25, 2025.
Duke vs Miami Prediction
My Pick: Duke -22.5 (Play to -23.5)
My Miami vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Duke vs Miami Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -115 | 150.5 -115o / -105u | -8000 |
| Miami (FL) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -105 | 150.5 -115o / -105u | +2200 |
- Duke vs Miami spread: Duke -22.5
- Duke vs Miami over/under: 150.5 points
- Duke vs Miami moneyline: Duke -8000, Miami +2200
- Duke vs Miami best bet: Duke -22.5 (Play to -23.5)
Spread
My best bet is on Duke to cover the spread.
Moneyline
While I'm taking Duke to cover, I don't see value on the ginormous moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this ACC clash.
My Pick: Duke -22.5 (Play to -23.5)
Duke vs Miami College Basketball Betting Preview
You won't find a more uneven matchup in conference play than this one.
Miami lost games to Charleston Southern and Mount St. Mary's, while Duke is the No. 1-ranked team in KenPom.
That said, the Canes have been faring better of late. They have won two of their last five games and lost by 13 points or fewer in each of the losses, which is a real improvement compared to early ACC results.
Could some of that be a byproduct of who Miami played? Perhaps. Florida State and Virginia Tech are bad teams, but losing by nine and 10 to Pitt and Louisville, respectively, is palatable.
Similar to the first meeting, I don't know where Miami scores.
The DNA of the Canes offense is scoring inside the arc. They shoot 55% from 2-point range, but scoring against Duke's interior is a nightmare. Miami scored just 54 points a month ago in Durham.
The Blue Devils hold opponents to a 42.9% 2-point percentage — the lowest in college basketball. One of the big reasons for Duke's dominant interior defense is length. Every player in Jon Scheyer's rotation is 6-foot-5 or taller with plus athleticism. Scoring on this team inside will be tough for a mediocre Miami team.
Duke boasts an elite defense in general. It doesn't just specialize in limiting teams at the rim. KenPom's top-ranked team owns the fourth-most efficient defense in America.
Another awesome thing about Duke's defense? It doesn't send teams to the foul line often (28th in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric). Unless a team really earns it, it isn't scoring against Duke.
Conversely, Miami is a bad perimeter-scoring team, shooting around 31% from deep. Matthew Cleveland is the only consistent scorer on the Hurricanes' roster, but he missed its last game against Virginia Tech.
If Cleveland can't go, Miami will need big shooting performances from freshman guards Jalil Bethea, Paul Djobet and Austin Swartz.
The Canes won't be able to dump the ball down to Lynn Kidd without a tough contest from 7-footer Khaman Maluach. So, Miami's only real path for scoring is by hitting the deep ball.
Miami has a solid offense in general, but it can't defend a soul. While there's nothing new in Coral Gables, it has gone to a new level this year. It ranks a ghastly 336th in defensive efficiency, and opponents shoot a ridiculous 38.7% from deep.
For Duke's elite defensive dominance, it's even better offensively, ranking No. 2 in KenPom's adjusted offense efficiency. The offense starts and ends with National Player of the Year frontrunner Cooper Flagg.
The dynamic freshman from Maine is such a tricky cover.
Nobody on Miami's roster can contain Flagg one-on-one, so the Canes have to either live with 30-plus points from Flagg or converge and let him dish to shooters. I'm not sure Miami wants that either, as Duke shoots 38% from 3 and has Tyrese Proctor and Kon Knueppel ready to fire.
While the number is lofty, we know Duke is plenty capable of winning big. The Blue Devils just beat Illinois, 110-67, and beat a Stanford team that beat Miami, 106-70.
If the Blue Devils are on their A-game, winning this game by 20-plus won't be as daunting as it sounds.
