The Duke Blue Devils take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, TX. Tip-off is set for 2:15 p.m. ET on The CW Network.
Duke is favored by 8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 149 points.
Here are my Duke vs. SMU predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
Duke vs SMU Prediction
My Pick: Duke -8 or Better
My Duke vs SMU best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Duke vs SMU Odds, Spread, Pick
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 149 -110 / -110 | -360 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 149 -110 / -110 | +280 |
- Duke vs SMU spread: Duke -8
- Duke vs SMU over/under: 149 points
- Duke vs SMU moneyline: Duke -360, SMU +280
- Duke vs SMU best bet: Duke -8 or Better
My Duke vs SMU College Basketball Betting Preview
Can anyone break Duke’s defense?
The Blue Devils are dominant on that end. They’re endlessly lengthy and switchable, one through five. They’re great against ball-screens and swarming on the wing. You can't get out or score in transition against them. Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach are two of the best shot-blockers and rim-protectors in the country.
It seems like the best way to beat the Blue Devils is over the top, given that they rank sub-200th nationally in 3-point rate allowed and 353rd in Open 3 Rate allowed. Somehow, opponents have shot under 30% from deep so far, a mark ripe for regression — ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts.
But I’m uncertain if SMU can exploit that avenue. The Mustangs are a rim-reliant offense that pressures the paint in transition, through ball screens and in post-up sets. They also grab offensive rebounds at a top-10 rate nationally.
But, as alluded to, you can’t get to the rim against Flagg, Maluach and Duke.
As mentioned, the Blue Devils are elite in transition denial, ranking fifth nationally in fast-break points per game allowed (five). As expected, they're solid defending post-up sets behind Flagg and Maluach (.75 PPP allowed, 79th percentile).
The Blue Devils also clean the glass well (top 50 in defensive rebounding rate), rarely allowing quality second-chance opportunities (eight second-chance points per game allowed, 95th percentile).
SMU has shot the lights out from deep (39%), which could give the Mustangs a fighting chance. But I doubt that’s sustainable, even on low volume. ShotQuality projects the Mustangs should be shooting closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts.
On the other end of the court, SMU also has a rock-solid interior defense. It ranks 16th nationally in 2-point defense (43%) while allowing only 25 paint points per game (94th percentile).
However, Duke runs a perimeter-oriented offense. The Blue Devils’ bread-and-butter is off-ball stagger screens to free up Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor and others. They’re shooting nearly 36% from deep on high volume, and I wouldn't project them for any regression.
It seems that SMU is struggling to switch effectively against off-ball shooters. The Mustangs rank sub-300th nationally in off-ball screen PPP (1.09) and Open 3 Rate (71%) allowed, allowing opponents to can 34% of their triples. Plus, big-man Samet Yigitoglu is among the worst nation's big-man defenders in space, which will make it impossible for the Mustangs to keep up with the 6-foot-9 three-level scoring phenom that is Flagg.
Essentially, you can't do this against Duke:
So, at least schematically, the matchup heavily favors the Blue Devils.
It’s also worth wondering if SMU is overvalued after its 11-2 start. The Mustangs have played nobody (223rd nationally in strength of schedule), while Duke is battle-tested (33rd).
Another potential betting note: Duke's true road games have stayed under nearly three-quarters of the time since Jon Scheyer took over the program, as his Blue Devils are elite in transition-denial and force opponents into his preferred 60-to-65-possession game script.
However, I make the total over 150, so I’ll stay away from any over/under wager in this battle.
I’m weary of laying three possessions with a slower-paced road favorite in conference play. Still, many projection systems — including our Action PRO Model — make the Blue Devils a double-digit favorite on Saturday.
