#1 Duke vs. #16 North Dakota State NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Duke -30.5 (our projection)
- Over/Under: 145.5
- Date: Friday, March 22
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Columbia, S.C.
- TV: CBS
Duke's Statistical Profile
Duke is the most talented team in the country IF Zion Williamson is healthy. The Blue Devils struggled with the consensus top pick in the NBA Draft sidelined, stumbling to 3-3 in their final six games during the regular season.
Zion returned for the conference tournament and it was back to business as usual for Duke. Williamson led Duke to the ACC Tournament title en route to MVP honors, with wins over Syracuse, North Carolina and Florida State.
With Zion back to full health and this team once again rolling, the Devils enter March Madness as the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament. — PJ Walsh
- Record: 29-5
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 3
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 6
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
- Tempo Rank: 15
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
North Dakota State's Statistical Profile
For the first time in four years, the Bison are back in the Big Dance. And it wasn't easy getting there. After a mediocre regular season (18-15 overall, 9-7 conference), North Dakota State got hot at the right time and went off in the Summit League tournament, running the table as a 4-seed and upsetting Omaha Nebraska 73-63 in the championship game. The stats are ugly for the Bison, as they rank 203rd in adjusted efficiency.
Their offense ranks a respectable 123rd in efficiency, led by Junior guards Vinnie Shahid (12.8 PPG) and Tyson Ward (12.3 PPG). However, their defense is putrid, ranking 277th in defensive efficiency. They also play at an incredibly slow, deliberate pace (311th in tempo). They're a good story, but based on the numbers, the Bison are looking at a quick extinction in Round 1. — Josh Appelbaum
- Record: 18-15
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 203
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 132
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 277
- Tempo Rank: 311
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Duke-NC Central/North Dakota St. Instant Bracket Pick
Duke will win handily against whichever team comes out of this game, but you already know that. The spread will also be massive, maybe among the largest we've ever seen in the NCAA Tournament, now that Zion Williamson is healthy.
But if North Dakota State wins, keep in mind that the Bison shoot a high percentage and play at an extremely slow pace, so they might stay within a big number by limiting the number of possessions in the game.
Duke causes so many turnovers and is so disruptive with Zion that North Dakota State may not even get shots up on possessions, but if you want an angle on a monster underdog, that's the team I'd be rooting for to win the play-in game.
Early bracket pick: Duke — Locky
Sean Koerner's Duke-North Carolina Central Projections
Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.
- Spread: Duke -35
- Over/Under: 141
- Score: Duke 88 | North Carolina Central 53
- Win Probability: Duke 99.9% | North Carolina Central 0.1%
Sean Koerner's Duke-North Dakota State Projections
- Spread: Duke -30.5
- Over/Under: 145.5
- Score: Duke 88 | North Dakota State 57.5
- Win Probability: Duke 99.9% | North Dakota State 0.1%
Sean Koerner's North Dakota State-North Carolina Central Projections
- Spread: North Dakota State -4.5
- Total: 137.5
- Proj Score: North Dakota State 71 | North Carolina Central 66.5
- Win Probability: North Dakota State 66% | North Carolina Central 34%
