It's the third-most heavily bet game on Wednesday's slate as of the early afternoon, but given its late tip-off time (9 p.m. ET, ESPN), Duke vs. NC State has a pretty good shot of closing the night as top dog in that race.
Most of the bettors flocking to this game are unsurprisingly rolling with the Blue Devils. At 22-3 overall, Duke is the No. 6 team in the country, and at 12-2 in the ACC, the top team in the conference.
And while NC State sits fifth in the ACC (7-7, 16-9 overall), it would take a bit more than a 7.5/8-point opening spread for casual bettors to feel comfortable backing the Wolfpack.
The question, however, is whether that number is enough for sharps.
Odds as of Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Duke vs. NC State Sharp Betting Picks
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
A simple look at the line movement on this spread tells most of the sharp-betting story in this case.
Duke has drawn 69% of bets to this point, but has fallen a full point — a point and a half at some shops — from -7.5 to -6.5. Why would sportsbooks want to create an easier cover for the majority of their customers? Well, they don't, which means they must have more respect for the bettors on the other side of the spread.
Sure enough, a pair of Sports Insights Bet Signals have identified two instances of smart money hitting NC State at +7.5, causing the market-wide shift to the current number. And according to The Action Network's Line Predictor, the movement might not be done there.
Our tool suggests a 96% chance that the next move would also be in NC State's direction, and would push the spread to +6.
It's not just the spread drawing sharps' attention, though.
The total has seen a bump from 150.5 to 152, and another two Bet Signals on the over have confirmed pro action to be behind the move. At the time of writing, bets are split nearly down the middle, with the over holding a 51% edge.
Sharp angles: NC State (moved from +7.5 to +6.5), Over (moved from 150.5 to 152) [Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
