College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday, March 29
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:09 p.m. | |
| 6:09 p.m. | |
  | 8:49 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Two spots in the Final Four are on the line on Saturday, as Texas Tech takes on Florida and Alabama squares off against Duke.
Our staff has three best bets to help you fill out your March Madness betting card.
Read below for Elite Eight best bets and odds, including three March Madness picks and predictions for Saturday, March 29.
(A parlay isn't our official recommendation, but the option is below.)
Texas Tech vs. Florida Pick
As long as Alex Condon plays, I believe Florida is the right side.
Texas Tech runs most of its offense through JT Toppin and Darrion Williams in hard-roll, short-roll and post-up sets, which Florida should handle OK as long as Condon gets on the court.
He’s arguably the most important defender on the team, as he can handle almost any action one-on-one, which allows the other Gator defenders to extend and take away any Red Raider inside-out catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Texas Tech’s offense hasn’t shown up yet this March, but much of that is because of Chance McMillian’s absence, which hurts the Red Raiders’ on-ball creation and floor spacing. I’m more doubtful about his status than Condon’s.
On the other end of the court, we just saw Arkansas’ collection of dribble creators destroy Texas Tech’s backcourt.
Elijah Hawkins and Christian Anderson are both smaller guards, and both are super exploitable defenders off the bounce — Hawkins has been killed in isolation (1.18 PPP allowed, ninth percentile), while Anderson has been cooked in ball-screen coverage (.86 PPP allowed, 36th percentile).
The Gators are as good as anyone in dribble creation behind Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard. They should be able to run dribble hand-off sets into continuity ball-screen actions with little resistance.
It’s also worth mentioning that Texas Tech runs mainly drop-coverage defense, which Florida has roasted all year because it’s perfectly built to destroy drop with its trio of elite backcourt dribble-creators.
Ultimately, I have faith in Florida’s offense against Texas Tech’s questionable drop defense. At the same time, I have enough faith in the Gators’ defense (with Condon) to limit Texas Tech’s offense (without McMillian).
And I have enough faith in both things happening to lay seven.
Plus, Texas Tech shouldn’t even be here. The Red Raiders were blessed by John Calipari’s coaching incompetence and were lucky to sneak past the Hogs in the Sweet 16.
Pick: Florida -6.5 (Play to -7)
Texas Tech vs. Florida Pick
Florida (33-4 straight up, 27-10 against the spread) didn't even play well Thursday night, committing 17 turnovers and losing Condon for a good chunk of the game due to an ankle injury.
Nevertheless, the Gators easily advanced and covered the spread in an 87-71 win over Maryland as 6.5-point favorites. They improved to 11-2 ATS as single-digit favorites this season and picked up their 26th win by at least 11 points.
UF has 29 wins by margins of eight points or more.
Florida has better depth than Texas Tech, especially with the Red Raiders using just a seven-man rotation with McMillian missing the last four games.
It remains to be seen whether McMillian will be able to go on Saturday.
I like the Gators, who are 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games, regardless of McMillian's status.
Pick: Florida -6.5
Alabama vs. Duke Pick
Alabama is a very dangerous team. And after pouring in 25 3-pointers and cracking 100 without overtime against BYU, regression may be coming.
