The Fairfield Stags take on the Merrimack Warriors in North Andover, MA. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Merrimack is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -400. The total is set at 139 points.
Here are my Fairfield vs. Merrimack predictions and college basketball picks for January 3, 2025.
Fairfield vs Merrimack Prediction
My Pick: Merrimack -9 or Better
My Fairfield vs Merrimack best bet is on the Warriors spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Fairfield vs Merrimack Odds, Lines, Pick
| Fairfield Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 139 -110 / -110 | +320 |
| Merrimack Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 139 -110 / -110 | -400 |
- Fairfield vs Merrimack spread: Merrimack -8.5
- Fairfield vs Merrimack over/under: 139 points
- Fairfield vs Merrimack moneyline: Merrimack -400, Fairfield +320
- Fairfield vs Merrimack best bet: Merrimack -9 or Better
My Fairfield vs Merrimack College Basketball Betting Preview
To beat Joe Gallo’s patented zone defense, you must avoid turnovers, be comfortable cutting in the gaps and be willing to crash the offensive glass.
Fairfield performs well in some regards, ranking in the top 100 nationally in offensive turnover and rebounding rates. If the Stags want to keep it close on Friday, they’ll have to win the turnover, rebounding and shot-volume battles considerably.
That said, the Stags are less comfortable cutting off-ball — aside from forward Louis Bleechmore, who could have a big game on Friday — preferring on-ball creation from three-guard lineups.
Their zone (.77 PPP on 60 possessions, 10th percentile) and press (.83 PPP on 83 possessions, 37th percentile) offenses haven't been great, likely because they rely so much on on-ball creation that gets neutralized by zone coverages. I don’t love Fairfield’s chances against one of the nation’s most aggressive, press-happy zone defenses.
Merrimack also runs a dribble-heavy offense. The Warriors have significantly improved on that end this year, primarily thanks to the emergence of point guard Adam “Budd” Clark, a positively marvelous ball-screen operator.
The Warriors spam pick-and-roll with Budd on the court, and he’s generated efficient offense on high volume (118 possessions, 95th percentile; .92 PPP, 74th percentile). There’s a reason why he’s averaging 20 points and five assists per game.
Clark might be in for a big day, given Fairfield’s abhorrent ball-screen coverage — the Stags' 1.06 pick-and-roll PPP allowed ranks 360th nationally.
All in all, I mostly like the matchup for the Warriors.
From a more general point of view, Merrimack’s track record is far more impressive.
The Warriors went 3-8 in non-conference play but played the nation’s 32nd-toughest schedule. They’ve played very well against comparable competition, more-or-less handling Vermont, Troy and Boston University while surging to a 2-0 MAAC record with road wins over Canisius and Niagara.
Merrimack is also due for a significant bounce back after tough, single-digit road losses to Stanford and Saint Mary’s.
Meanwhile, the Stags have struggled against mediocre squads. They’re 5-8 despite ranking 277th nationally in strength of schedule. Their five wins came against a shorthanded Vermont squad, four KenPom sub-320 squads and non-Division I John Jay College.
At the same time, they’ve already recorded losses to three KenPom sub-200 squads.
It’s also worth mentioning that Fairfield’s only true road win came against KenPom No. 359 New Hampshire (by six). In their other road opportunities, the Stags lost by double-digits to Columbia, Monmouth, Georgetown and Rhode Island, and they allowed 101 points to Mount St. Mary’s ball-screen-centric offense.
In short, I’ve been mostly impressed with Merrimack and unimpressed with Fairfield. I also like the schematic matchup for the Warriors, and I think they’re in a good spot to pick up a convincing home win after back-to-back brutal road losses against two KenPom top-100 squads.
While I don’t feel great about laying three possessions with a slower-paced, defense-first squad, projections are surprisingly higher on the Warriors. Bart Torvik, Haslametrics and our Action PRO Model project Merrimack as a double-digit home favorite over Fairfield on Friday.
