The Florida Atlantic Owls take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on FS1.
Michigan State is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a 158-point over/under.
Here are my FAU vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for December 21, 2024.
FAU vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Michigan State -13.5 or Better
My FAU vs Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
FAU vs Michigan State Odds, Lines, Pick
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 158 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 158 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
- FAU vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -13.5
- FAU vs Michigan State over/under: 158 points
- FAU vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State -1200, FAU +750
- FAU vs Michigan State best bet: Michigan State -13.5 or Better
My FAU vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
For all the chatter about Michigan State’s useless frontcourt, the Spartans have dominated the interior on both ends this season.
They are scoring 40 paint points per game (95th percentile) while allowing just 27 (84th percentile). They are generating 1.34 at-the-rim PPS (96th percentile) while allowing just .99 (80th percentile).
Guards Jeremy Fears Jr., Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson have done well pressuring the rim in transition. Forwards Frankie Fidler, Jaxon Kohler and Coen Carr have been solid in posting, rolling, cutting and high-low action. Xavier Booker is playing OK ball, too, scoring in double-digits in four consecutive games.
Sparty also smashes the offensive glass, earning nearly 14 second-chance points per game (91st percentile), while cleaning the defensive glass, allowing only seven second-chance points per game (95th percentile).
This is all good news against FAU, a below-average two-way rebounding squad that can’t prevent second-chance points (12 allowed per game, 24th percentile) while struggling to defend in transition (1.11 PPP allowed, 17th percentile).
The Owls protect the rim and paint well but struggle to deny interior opportunities. I suspect Michigan State can take advantage.
On the other end of the court, Florida Atlantic is a transition-and-rim-reliant offense that rolls, cuts and pressures its way to 37 paint points per game (86th percentile). The guards are solid off the bounce, while Baba Miller and Kaleb Glenn are athletic wing creators and post-bullies who do well in high-low and pick-and-pop actions.
But, as mentioned, Sparty is an elite interior defense. The Spartans are even better in transition denial — Tom Izzo is likely the best transition coach of this generation, which will prove significant in this up-tempo battle.
Florida Atlantic can earn pick-and-pop points against Sparty’s big men, who can be exploited when forced to defend in space. But the Owls will need to hit more than a few, considering they will have a tough time running anything else.
The Owls are due for a lot of positive shooting regression on defense. Opponents are shooting 39% from 3 when, based on the “quality” of attempts, they should be shooting closer to 34%, per ShotQuality. Florida Atlantic is undervalued on that end of the court.
However, in this matchup, Michigan State’s well-overdue positive shooting regression cancels out most of that. The Spartans are shooting 27% from 3 when they should be shooting closer to 34%. They could be scary if they pair their already-efficient interior offense with some luckier perimeter scoring.
I initially thought the spread was a touch high, but Haslametrics, EvanMiya and Bart Torvik’s models all project Michigan State closer to a 15-point favorite than a 12-point one.
Given that I mostly like the matchup, I’ll throw Sparty a bone as a double-digit home favorite (anything under 13 is probably good).
