For the first time since 2008, all No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament.
That means one thing: We're set up for fireworks in San Antonio as Duke, Houston, Auburn and Florida battle for the right to be a national champion.
Our staff has their Final Four best bets below, including five college basketball expert picks and predictions for Saturday, April 5.
(Even though a parlay isn't our official recommendation, there's an option below.)
Final Four Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:09 p.m. | |
| 6:09 p.m. | |
  | 8:49 p.m. | |
| 8:49 p.m. | |
| 8:49 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Florida vs. Auburn
I believe the wrong team is favored.
Auburn was the nation’s consensus top team for most of the season.
Everyone jumped off the Tiger bandwagon in the NCAA Tournament for whatever reason.
I still don’t understand why. Was it because they lost three games in the regular season over the last handful of weeks?
Those three losses were to Alabama at the buzzer, at Texas A&M in a game they were shorthanded and to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals in a back-and-forth affair.
Bruce Pearl was probably pleased they dropped at least one of those to allow his team to refocus before the Big Dance.
The Tigers are back to playing their best basketball. They dominated Michigan State from start to finish in the Elite Eight, outscored Michigan by double digits in the second half in the Sweet 16 and handled a very sound Creighton team in the Round of 32.
Meanwhile, the Gators have had a more rocky path to the Final Four.
Florida was somewhat fortunate to beat UConn and extremely lucky to beat Texas Tech. The Gators' only other notable win was against a Maryland group whose coach quit on his team in the days leading up to the game.
Yes, Todd Golden has the best guard in America — Walter Clayton Jr. — who's unflappable in big moments. He also has an athletic and talented group of big men and plenty of depth.
But Pearl has the horses to make Clayton work for every bucket on the defensive end, and he has an All-American in Johni Broome who will be the best big on the floor by a wide margin.
I’m not concerned with Broome’s elbow injury, nor that Florida won the only regular-season meeting between these two.
Ultimately, I view Auburn as the better basketball team, and I expect Pearl’s team to get it done against the Gators in the first of what should be two epic Final Four matchups.
War Eagle.
Pick: Auburn +2.5 (Play to +1.5)
Florida vs. Auburn
By John Feltman
The Florida Gators pulled off a miracle victory over Texas Tech in the Elite Eight, fighting back from a 10-point deficit with under eight minutes left in regulation.
The Auburn Tigers will join them for a Final Four rematch after Florida downed Auburn, 90-81, on Feb. 8.
This is an absurd overreaction by the market. Let's not forget that Auburn was nearly a 10-point home favorite back on Feb. 8. Now, it’s suddenly a 2.5-point underdog on a neutral court.
I understand Broome won’t be 100%, but I still think the market has gotten carried away here. Florida missed only three free throws in that Feb. 8 matchup, and Auburn missed nine to help the Gators pull away.
Look, Florida deserves to be here — it’s been one of the best four teams in the country all season long. But I can’t convince myself to lay 2.5 points with it here.
The Gators narrowly escaped against UConn in the Round of 32, and they were two Texas Tech free throws away from sitting on the couch right now.
And what if they didn't have Clayton?
He's been the MVP of the NCAA Tournament thus far, considering how clutch he’s been late in these games. I realize these are a bunch of hypotheticals, but I think it's best to take a second to remove yourself from the Gators' recent heroics and analyze the matchup.
Whether or not Broome is 100%, the Tigers are the more physical team. The Gators’ perimeter defense has been playing with fire for quite some time now, and we saw a glimpse of that regression kick in against Texas Tech.
Auburn should get plenty of good looks from deep, and as long as it continues to limit the turnovers at an elite level, it should have plenty of success scoring the ball.
The Gators have the best guard combo left in the tournament, so the Tigers' typically sharp perimeter defense needs to be present here.
I truly think Auburn is going to win the matchup outright, as its physicality is elite enough to wear Florida down late.
Regardless, I’m happy to take +2.5. I’m not worried about Broome's health, especially since he wouldn’t have re-entered last Sunday's matchup against Michigan State if the injury was severe enough to limit him.
Pick: Auburn +2.5 (Play to PK)
Houston vs. Duke
Duke has lost just three games all season but did so against a schedule that went long stretches without offering an elite-level challenge — especially elite defenses.
Against teams ranked outside the top 20 nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating, Duke is 35-1. Against teams ranked inside the top 20, Duke is 1-2.
It’s not a surprise that good teams have good defenses. But Houston’s defense isn’t just good, it’s the nation’s best and offers a unique challenge.
The Cougars won’t out-scheme or out-shoot Duke. Instead, they want to turn the game into a wrestling match.
The outcome of the game could be heavily influenced by officiating. Houston wants to be physical — both on defense and on the glass. If the refs allow the boys to play, it gives the Cougars a significant advantage.
Duke’s lone ACC loss — at Clemson — is the model for a Houston win.
The Blue Devils shot 12-for-24 from deep in that matchup, while the Tigers made only four triples. Duke won the turnover battle, and Clemson shot 13-for-22 from the charity stripe.
But the Tigers earned the win thanks to 11 offensive rebounds and a +18 points-in-the-paint margin (40-to-22).
I also suspect some negative shooting regression is coming for Duke, as the Blue Devils have hit 54% of their triples over the past three games.
Ultimately, I like Houston’s chances of mucking the game up and sending a bruised and battered Duke team back to Durham.
Pick: Houston +220 (Play to +200)
Houston vs. Duke
For the first time in 17 years, all four top seeds are in the Final Four.
Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn rank second, sixth, eighth and 10th in adjusted efficiency, respectively, among all KenPom teams since 1997.
This is the best collection of talent ever to make the Final Four by a wide margin.
Will these games live up to the hype? Or, as it has all tournament, will the chalk prevail?
Duke has been a public team since the Christian Laettner days. The Blue Devils might even be likable this season, which would be a first.
Their offense is fun and lethal, ranking first in every possible efficiency metric.
Cooper Flagg has it all as a prospect, with the ability to shoot from anywhere, swat shots or put some poor defender on a poster with a rim-rattling dunk. He’s not above diving on the floor for a loose ball or leaping into the first row to save an errant pass — he’s a superstar who also does the dirty work.
But let’s not pretend Houston is some plucky underdog story. Kelvin Sampson has transformed the Cougars into a fearsome defensive institution.
Duke has the nation’s best offense, but Houston might have the sport’s best defense this century. The 2025 Cougars hold the best defensive efficiency rating since 2011 in EvanMiya’s model and have the second-best mark among Power Five teams since 2020 in KenPom’s model.
A big reason for their success is their unique approach. While countless teams defend ball screens by using “drop coverage,” Houston does the opposite.
The Cougars aggressively blitz ball handlers, doubling to force the ball out of the opponent’s hands. They do the same in the post, making short passes nearly impossible.
Their “monster” defense has led to some wild statistical achievements.
Opponents make fewer than 20 shots per game (first nationally) while shooting at a dreadful clip (38.2%, first). That’s if these teams can hang onto the ball long enough to shoot. Nearly 19% of opponent possessions end in turnovers for the Coogs (20th).
And despite their high-effort, frenetic double-teams, Houston is still an above-average defensive rebounding team, snagging 75.4% of available defensive boards (42nd).
The Coogs pair their defensive mastery with a slow, deliberate pace (360th nationally in adjusted tempo).
Clemson has a similar formula, ranking 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 327th in adjusted tempo. The Tigers handed the Blue Devils their last loss, a 77-71 upset at Littlejohn Coliseum.
Similarly, pace alone allowed Notre Dame to hang with Duke at Cameron Indoor in January, and it should help Houston avoid a Duke scoring avalanche in San Antonio.
On the offensive end, Houston has the shooting to attack Duke’s lone defensive weakness.
The Blue Devils’ interior defense is fortress-like, thanks to Khaman Maluach and Flagg rejecting 2.6 shots per night.
However, Duke is content with allowing teams to bomb away from 3 (22.5 3-pointers allowed per game, 176th nationally), and Houston has the shooters to make it pay.
As a team, the Cougars shoot 39.7% from long range (second nationally), which is professional grade. Milos Uzan could be the key after he willed the Cougars to victory over Purdue with six triples and the game-winning layup.
And if this game comes down to the wire, Duke’s lack of tight-game experience could rear its head.
The Blue Devils blew late-game opportunities to Kansas and Kentucky in the non-conference and faced the 54th-most difficult strength of schedule nationally. If they were to win the National Championship, they would be one of the least tested champions of the past 30 years.
I’m happy to take the points with Houston.
Pick: Houston +5.5
Houston vs. Duke
By Sean Paul
Duke is the best team in the country, and it’s not particularly close. We’ve seen that in the first four NCAA Tournament games, as the Blue Devils have led by 19-plus points in each game.
