The Final Four is set, and despite a myriad of upsets this weekend, we'll still have some excellent games in Minneapolis next weekend.
Virginia is -5.5 with an over/under of 130.5 in the betting market for its clash with Auburn, while Michigan State is a 3-point favorite over Texas Tech, with a total of 132.5.
Using The Action Network's college basketball power ratings, created by Sean Koerner, we can project our own point spreads and over/unders for any possible matchup between any two teams in the country.
Here are our projected point spreads for both Final Four matchups.
Sean Koerner's Virginia-Auburn Projections
These ratings were built by Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, a former oddsmaker and FantasyPros' most accurate in-season fantasy football ranker from 2015-2017.
The most interesting thing about these projected lines are the differences in totals, with the betting market at 130 and our projection at 138. Virginia does have an elite perimeter defense, giving up the third-lowest 3-point percentage in the nation.
- Spread: Virginia -5.5
- Over/Under: 138
- Score: Virginia 72 | Auburn 66.5
- Win Probability: Virginia 70% | Auburn 30%
On the other side of the bracket, we projected Texas Tech to be an underdog in either matchup. We have the Blue Devils -6, but the market being down on them might cause a slightly shorter number to develop throughout the week, should they advance to the Final Four.
Michigan State-Texas Tech Projections
- Spread: Michigan State -2.5
- Over/Under: 131
- Score: Michigan State 67 | Texas Tech 64.5
- Win Probability: Michigan State 57.2% | Texas Tech 42.8%
