What a day we have on Saturday, with three programs making their Final Four debut. That hasn't happened since 1970.
This will also mark the first time ever a top three seed won't play on the final weekend of the season.
The total collective seeds sum up to 23 (9+5+5+4) — the second highest in tourney history, trailing only the wild and wacky 2011 tournament (26). That Final Four also had two mid-majors and took place in Houston, with UConn winning it all over a mid-major (No. 8 seed Butler).
Could history repeat itself in Space City?
From a betting trends perspective, Final Four favorites have gone 18-15-1 (54.5%) ATS since 2005, per Action Labs. Although, teams laying six or fewer points (as is the case Saturday) have fared a bit better at 15-9-1 (62.5%) ATS.
Totals wise, overs have slightly edged unders over that span at an 18-16 (52.9%) clip, with closing totals of 130 or greater cashing at 62.1% (18-11).
For whatever reason, teams tend to play a bit faster out of the gates in the Final Four compared Elite 8. My hypothesis is they are a little looser after making it to the final weekend, which could explain why 1H overs have hit at a 58% rate historically.
However, these are very small sample sizes, so I wouldn't read too much into any historical trends. Plus, the market can always adjust to any trends with merit over time.
It's better to just focus on the matchups at hand, which I will do below by sharing by betting thoughts for both games.
I'll also detail my two favorite player props for Saturday.
Good luck with whatever you wager on. And most importantly, enjoy the final weekend of college sports betting until August.
(Odds presented by BetMGM.)
Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State -2 | O/U: 132
Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET · CBS (Houston, TX)
Can we start to put some respect on Florida Atlantic's name? Yes, the Owls come from C-USA — which some casual bettors might not be too familiar with — but the league has now gone 17-1 in the postseason and is guaranteed to have the CBI and NIT champions.
Therefore, if Dusty May's group can win two more games, the C-USA will amazingly have swept all three postseason tournaments.
Regardless of familiarity level, the Owls are legit.
They now sit in the top 20 on KenPom and in my most recent power ratings. They also don't really have a glaring weakness on either side of the ball. In fact, I'd make them a favorite over Miami in a potential final and make this particular game pretty much a coin flip. So, I took the two points in a matchup I fancy.
I do want to clarify that I'm not sleeping on the Aztecs, either. San Diego State had a fairly favorable path the first two rounds, but you can't take anything away from its two victories over Alabama and Creighton this past weekend.
As usual, the Aztecs have primarily got the job done with their smothering defense. They have held their four opponents to under 57 points on average — and have faced a few top-tier offenses.
Even more impressively, their two most recent wins came without much from the very streaky Matt Bradley. SDSU's leading scorer combined for only eight points on 3-of-14 shooting against the Crimson Tide and Bluejays.
It certainly helped that Alabama and Creighton shot a combined 5-of-44 from 3, though. That's 11.4%.
For the entire tournament, San Diego State has held teams to 16-of-94 (17.0%) from beyond the arc. That's simply unsustainable, even for a unit that has held teams to 27.8% on the season. Only Tennessee ranks higher in that department.
Oddly enough, Florida Atlantic already beat the Vols en route to the Final Four despite only connecting on 8-of-27 from 3.
For the tournament, the Owls have only shot 34-of-109 from 3. That 31.2% percentage sits well below their season average of 36.5% for a team that takes and makes 3s at a top-50 rate nationally.
There's some looming shooting regression both ways that could work in FAU's favor.
I believe the Owls have the personnel and scheme to find enough points to get the job done against this tremendous SDSU defense.
You need elite spacing, ball movement and a plethora of shooters that can deal with SDSU's supreme physicality and unrelenting ball pressure. FAU has that in spades with a deep lineup that normally consists of four shooters out on the floor.
Since SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher is such an elite game planner, opponents can't rely on just one or two guys to make shots from the outside. The Aztecs also possess extreme length and close out on shooters as well as anybody.
Well, FAU has many potential options on the perimeter and has proved it can deal with physical power-conference opponents over the past few weeks.
Look no further than the Tennessee game for a perfect example.
Defensively, FAU does force you into the mid-range, which might work in San Diego State's favor — since the Aztecs are more than comfortable in that normally inefficient scoring area.
However, the Aztecs' offense (74th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom) is the weakest unit in this particular matchup.
History says that will eventually catch up with them.
Miami vs. UConn -5.5 | O/U: 149.5
Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET · CBS (Houston, TX)
I can't praise this Miami team enough for the run it has made since trailing Drake late in the second half in the first round. Putting up 85, 88 and 89 in back-to-back-to-back games against Indiana, Houston and Texas is a remarkable feat.
The Hurricanes' defense still has holes, ranking outside the top 100 in Adjusted Efficiency, per KenPom. Similar to San Diego State's offense, that may very well prove to be the Canes' demise.
Although, admittedly, it's tough to doubt these electric Miami guards, especially when you mix in how well Jordan Miller and Norchad Omier are playing. To match Houston on the glass is one helluva feat for this bunch.
And, honestly, who cares about defensive deficiencies if you can score 90 every game?
That said, UConn is playing on another level. For all of the Cinderella stories and upsets, the Huskies ranked No. 1 on Bart Torvik since Feb. 1 and now rank first overall on KenPom.
Everybody knew UConn had an elite defense and unparalleled length, but now the offense is humming, which completes the puzzle. Consequently, the Huskies have won four tournament games by a gaudy average of 22.5, with each victory coming by at least 15 points.
I project UConn as a seven-point favorite here. As a result, I do have a slight lean to the favored Huskies (both of my totals are spot on for what it's worth) who I ultimately believe will have too much size inside.
Moreover, I can't envision the Miami defense getting enough stops unless UConn suddenly goes stone cold from the outside. I'm assuming the Huskies will get an abundance of open looks unless Miami wants to allow free layups and dunks.
Maybe you could argue UConn is due for a bit of negative shooting regression after hitting 41-of-98 (41.8%) from 3 so far this tournament, but the Hurricanes aren't a great 3P defense — unlike three of the four opponents the Huskies have seen in the bracket.
That makes those numbers even more impressive.
As it stands currently, I don't have enough of an edge to place a wager on UConn laying the points, especially since I may admittedly be missing something with this Canes crew. All they do is cover.
Including the postseason, Miami is now 22-10 ATS (68.8%), covering by more than three points per game on average. Only Utah Valley has turned a larger profit for bettors this season.
Even more impressively (and relevant for this particular game), Miami owns an insane 18-3 ATS mark (85.7%) as either an underdog or favorite of less than six points.
That includes a 9-2 ATS mark as just an underdog — and one of those games came against Duke in the ACC Tournament when Omier suffered an injury in the first minute.
I may bet the Huskies on the moneyline — or pair their moneyline with something else this weekend in a parlay — but I wouldn't bet the full-game spread unless it drops to five or below.
Favorite Player Props
Darrion Trammell Under 10.5 Points
First off, Trammell has only cleared this number in 16 of 36 games (44.4%) with a median of seven points. From a pure numbers perspective, this makes sense, as I project this line closer to nine points.
Plus, it's not like Florida Atlantic plays at a super fast pace. In fact, this game will be San Diego State's first opponent of the tournament that ranks outside the top 150 in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, so possessions could be at a premium.
Two of SDSU's previous opponents — Alabama and Charleston — actually each sit inside the top 30 in that category.
Additionally, Trammell's scoring output is highly correlated to his success shooting the 3. In the 11 games he made multiple 3s, he averaged 15.6 points per game.
Conversely, in the 25 he connected on less than two, he only averaged 7.3 points. That makes sense for a guard who scored more points from 3 (144) than 2 (136) on the season.
Well, Florida Atlantic ranks inside the top-100 nationally in both 3-point attempt rate and percentage allowed. It also has plenty of length to bother Trammell on the perimeter.
Plus, Trammell only shot a paltry 40% from inside the arc. That could spell trouble against an FAU defense that ranked 11th nationally in that category.
Also, if I'm correct on my FAU victory prediction, Trammell would have a lower probability of picking up free points late in the game at the charity stripe. So, there's certainly some correlation with my Owls wager.
Lastly, I just have a sneaky feeling Bradley will have a big game after a couple of duds. That would take some of the scoring onus off of Trammell.
Nijel Pack Under 14.5 Points
Similar to the first prop, I'm betting another points total under with a smaller guard that is uber-reliant on the 3 on a team that I think will fall on Saturday night.
On the season, Pack averaged 13.8 points per game — with a median of 13.5 — while clearing this points total in 16 of 34 games (47.1%). Therefore, on the surface, this looks a tad low, but not by an egregious amount.
However, this will mark one of the best defenses Miami has faced all season. UConn's extreme length all over the court could also really bother Pack.
Also, just like Trammell, Pack's scoring output is highly correlated with his 3-point shooting.
This season, the 41% career 3P shooter has made only two more field goals from 2-point range than 3.
- In the 13 games he made three or more 3-pointers, he averaged 19.8 points per game (median: 21).
- In the 10 where he made exactly two, that average dropped to 11.5 (median: 10.5).
- And finally, when he only connected on one or zero 3-pointers, that mean fell even further to 8.8 (median: 9).
Therefore, in the 21 games (61.7% of total played) that opponents held him to fewer than three made 3-pointers, he only averaged 10.1 points per game with a median of 9.0.
Well, UConn arguably has the best 3-point defense in the country. The Huskies allowed the 12th-lowest 3-point attempt rate and are one of only 15 teams that hold opponents under 30.0% on those attempts.
They also shouldn't have to help much inside, which should make it very difficult for Pack to find open perimeter shots.
I think this should be closer to 12/12.5.
Let's just hope Miami doesn't drop another 90-piece nugget.
