The Final Four is this week in San Antonio and our college basketball experts got together live on the Action Network YouTube channel to give out their favorite player props from our two games.
Here are our expert player prop picks for Auburn vs. Florida and Duke vs. Houston on Saturday night.
Florida vs. Auburn Player Props
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Miles Kelly Under 12.5 Points (-125)
Sean Koerner & Nick Giffen: Miles Kelly has been held to eight points or fewer in three straight games since putting up 23 against Alabama State in the opening round.
Kelly has been ice-cold the last few games while still taking plenty of shots, and normally this might be a decent buy-low situation, but even if you applied his season-long shooting percentages to the last three games, he would only be expected to score 11.4 points per game.
This also isn't really a spot to expect Kelly to bounce back as Florida has the fifth-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed in the country.
We're projecting Kelly closer to 10.5 points with a 67% chance of staying under 12.5, and a 60% chance of staying under 11.5.
Tahaad Pettiford Over 12.5 Points (-115)
Erik Beimfohr: My colleagues are sharply on some Auburn unders, so who is going to score for the Tigers?
The Auburn team total is 78.5, and they scored 81 in the earlier meeting between these two teams. Johni Broome is banged up, Auburn has trimmed its rotation to basically 7.5 guys, and they need to keep pace with Florida here.
Pettiford has gone over this number in four of his last five games with a 26.5% usage rate. His offense is likely going to be very needed by the Tigers in this matchup.
Johni Broome Under 29.5 Points + Rebounds (-111)
Mike Calabrese: Injury concerns are piling up for Johni Broome, which include a hyperextension of his knee and an elbow strain against Michigan State. His shoulder isn't 100%, either.
Florida has bigs to throw at Broome in waves to keep him off the glass. The Gators are even deeper now than when these two teams met earlier this season as Micah Handlogten is playing 12 minutes per game since the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan was successful in getting Broome in foul trouble and he ultimately fouled out of that game, so he can be susceptible to the whistle as well.
Duke vs. Houston Player Props
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -120 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | +220 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 +100 | 135.5 -115o / -105u | -270 |
LJ Cryer Under 2.5 Rebounds (-115)
Sean Koerner: This has been my favorite recurring bet of the NCAA Tournament. I think I was on it for the first three round.
I think in a couple of those games LJ Cryer had two rebounds in the first half to give us a scare, but then logged zero in the second half.
I took a break from this bet in Houston's last game because I was on the under in the Cougars' matchup with Tennessee. I was expecting and rooting for a ton of potential rebounds to go around. It was a good thing we stayed away, as Cryer finished with seven boards.
All that does now is allow us to get another good price on under 2.5 on Saturday night. Houston usually faces a ton of missed shots, but the Cougars will be facing the best offense in the country in Duke, an excellent shooting team, so there will be fewer rebound opportunities.
I'm projecting Cryer closer to 2.1 rebounds against the Blue Devils with a 65% chance of staying under 2.5.
Sion James 3+ Assists (+170)
Nick Giffen: Duke's team total is set at 70.5 and in the 11 games this season where the Blue Devils scored 75 points or fewer, Sion James averaged 2.45 assists in 24.5 minutes.
Against Houston, we're projecting James in the 28-30 minutes range, which would be about 2.8 assists.
However, Houston allows the 54th-highest assist rate out of the 364 Division I teams this season.
Cooper Flagg's shot usage also goes up against top-tier teams and we can expect James to be looking in his direction.
Even with a conservative assist rate for James, we're right at that 2.8 projection, so it's basically a coin flip that he hits 3+, giving value here.
Sion James 2+ Three-Pointers (+320)
Erik Beimfohr: Houston's defensive scheme is very specific: blitzing ball screens and trapping the post. This leads to a ton of second-side 3-point-attempts for the Cougars' opponents.
Houston allowed the 46th-highest 3-point rate in the country this season and we jut saw Tennessee and Purdue get up 56 combined 3-pointers in the last two games.
Sion James is not a high-volume 3-point shooter, but he is a lethal one, sitting at 42% on the season after hitting 39% last year with Tulane.
With Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Tyrese Proctor doing most of the ball-handling and creation, James should be that second side shooter left open frequently in this game.
Milos Uzan 3+ Three-Pointers (+260)
Mike Calabrese: The Houston offense took a big step forward once Milos Uzan became a consistent threat from the perimeter.
In his last 13 games, Uzan has made three or more triples five times.
If you remove the blowout win in the opening round against SIU-Edwardsville, Uzan has averaged 34 minutes per game since late January.
Duke's interior defense is fortress-like, so teams have to shoot from distance in order to stand a chance. Opponents are avearaging 22.5 3-point attempts per game against the Blue Devils this season.
