For the just second time in NCAA Tournament history, all four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Some may say that all the chalk is "boring" for a tournament known as for March Madness. However, it also means that we get to see the four best teams both according to the committee and KenPom do battle.
Three players that I will be targeting player pros are Thomas Haugh, Chad Baker-Mazara, and J'Wan Roberts.
Without further ado, read on for my Final Four player props for Saturday, April 5.
Final Four Player Props – Saturday, April 5
- Thomas Haugh Over 11.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)
- Chad Baker-Mazara Over 2.5 Assists (-110, BetMGM)
- J'Wan Roberts Under 10.5 Points (-130, Fanatics)
Walter Clayton Jr. was once again clutch down the stretch as Florida rallied to defeat Texas Tech last Saturday. He scored 30 points and soared over his 19.5 points line in the process. However, Florida would not be in the Final Four this weekend without Thomas Haugh.
The sophomore big man had 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Red Raiders. He has scored 12 points in three of four NCAA Tournament games thus far and is averaging 13.3 points and 7.5 points. He has cleared this line in six of his last 10 games and finished with 11 in two others.
When these teams met in the regular season, Auburn closed as 10.5-point favorite. However, Haugh helped the Gators pull off the road upset with 16 points and nine rebounds. He knocked down one 3 in that game and he just drained four against Texas Tech. His ability to stretch the floor should help him again.
Auburn has one of the nation's top frontcourts with Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell, and Chaney Johnson. However, it has given up at least 17 points to Ryan Kalkbrenner, Danny Wolf, and Jaxon Kohler in the last three games. Just 12 from Haugh will suffice tonight, but you can also back him for 15 points at +210 on Fanatics.
Auburn is averaging a shade under 84 points per game this season and it scored 81 points in the first meeting against Florida. It is averaging 16.3 assists per game, which ranks 33rd nationally. Rather than having one primary facilitator like Braden Smith or Zakai Zeigler, four Tigers average between 2.6 and 2.9 assists per game. However, it has been Chad Baker-Mazara leading the way.
Baker-Mazara has recorded three assists in six of his last eight games and finished with two against Michigan. In three of those games, he had five assists like he just did against Michigan State.
This stretch coincides with Baker-Mazara struggling to shoot himself, as he is under 30% from the field and has been held under 10 points in seven of his last eight games. However, he has still moved the ball well as Auburn has created open shots. That should help him get to three assists.
Much of the talk has been about Duke’s prolific offense going against Houston’s shutdown — and for good reason. Duke has the presumptive No. 1 pick and AP Player of the Year in Cooper Flagg while Houston has the nation’s most efficient defense, according to KenPom. However, Duke’s defense is also elite as it ranks fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Blue Devils also will have a size advantage as it does against most teams. Center Khaman Maluach anchors Duke’s defense at 7'2" while Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Sion James, and Tyrese Proctor are all 6'6" or taller. At 6'8", J’Wan Roberts is Houston’s tallest rotation player.
Guards LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan typically carry the load for the Cougars as they combine for over half of Houston's 74.2 points per game. Roberts attempts nine field goal per game and several are off putbacks — he averages 2.5 offensive rebounds per game. As a team, Houston ranks 282nd in 2-point percentage while Duke ranks third in the category defensively. Roberts is converting just 50.5% of his 2s himself.
Roberts scored 13 points against Duke last season, but Jamaal Shead went down early in that game. Tonight, his offensive rebounds may be limited and his attempts in the paint will be contested. He has scored 11 points three of his past 10 games. This is not a great matchup for him to get there again.
