Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his favorite player props for the men's Final Four matchups between Villanova and Kansas as well as Duke and North Carolina below. He has a 109-91-2 (54%) all-time record on college basketball bets he’s tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Each of the following picks is based, in part, on discrepancies between the player projections created by our predictive analytics team and the odds available as of writing. You can find more potential edges with our Action Labs Props Tool.
Final Four Props
Villanova vs. Kansas Props
Jermaine Samuels Under 7.5 Rebounds (+105)
The fact Samuels has gone over 7.5 rebounds in seven of his past eight games makes this a scary proposition, but there's a couple reasons to believe he'll stay under this number on Saturday.
First, over the entire season, Samuels has finished with under 7.5 rebounds 65% of the time.
Second, with Justin Moore out, Eric Dixon is expected to see more minutes and is thus likely to eat into Samuels' rebounding chances — and there could already be fewer rebounding chances based on the matchup alone. Kansas ranks in the top 40 of offensive rebounding rate and 29th in effective FG% while leaning heavily on 2-point attempts heavily, which lowers the team rebound projection for Villanova.
Our predictive analytics team is projecting Samuels closer to 6.5 boards with a 61% chance of staying under.
Pick: Under 7.5 (+105) at BetMGM | Bet to: -130
Collin Gillespie Under 3.5 Assists (+125)
The last time I targeted the under on Gillespie's assists, he went over 3.5 only because he dished out the two he needed to clear the line in the final minute against Ohio State. Sure enough, he's had only two each in the two rounds since.
Now with Moore out, I expect Gillespie to take more shots, which would help this prop.
Our model is projecting Gillespie closer to three assists with a 60% chance of staying under 3.5, so the price is right at plus-money.
Pick: Under 3.5 (+125) at BetMGM | Bet to: +110
Duke vs. North Carolina Props
Most Points: Armando Bacot +550
Paolo Banchero is the rightful favorite at +320 with Brady Manek next at +490, but our predictive analytics team is projecting Armando Bacot for close to the same number of points as the other two, making him a nice value at +550.
Duke's defensive philosophy is to limit 3-pointers and free throws, allowing opponents to score 58% of their points on 2-point shots — the 10th-highest rate in country. And that's where Bacot thrives. In fact, he matched Banchero for the most points the last time these rivals met on March 5, scoring his 23 points on 10-of-11 shooting from inside.
Pick: Armando Bacot +550 at FanDuel
Mark Williams Under 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
While Williams will see plenty of minutes — we're projecting him for 32.5 on Saturday — our model is projecting him for only 8.5 rebounds based on the matchup.
North Carolina is a very good rebounding team (thanks to Armando Bacot), ranking second in defensive rebounding rate, so Williams could see fewer offensive boards here.
We're giving him a 62% chance of staying under this number.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) at BetMGM | Bet to: -130
