All roads have led to Houston as the Final Four hits the great state of Texas, but some teams chose to get there at a different pace.
After a successful opening weekend of March Madness, the Tempo Report moved to 7-1 on totals through the Sweet 16. Each college basketball team is recognized for pace, as KenPom projects the number of possessions before two teams tipoff.
UConn and San Diego State enter with a methodical pace, while the tempo for Miami and Florida Atlantic generally leans on the quicker side.
As these teams contend with shooting at rims with NRG Stadium sight lines, we look at style clashes on offense and defense to identify any edge in the totals market.
No. 9 FAU vs. No. 5 San Diego State
Total: 131.5 · Projected: 135
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There are two key stats that stick out in this first game on the Saturday slate.
Both San Diego State and Florida Atlantic play a defensive drop style that allows opponents to walk the ball up the court. Don't be surprised when the full 30-second shot clock winds down during offensive possessions. The Aztecs and Owls rank 345th and 280th in average defensive possession length, respectively.
San Diego State sources its points from the paint and the free-throw line. That flies directly into a Floria Atlantic defense that ranks 15th nationally in effective field goal percentage and top-50 in defensive free-throw rate.
A heavy dosage of pick-and-roll with midrange jump shots awaits an Owls team that's top-40 in defensive efficiency for both categories, per ShotQuality. The Owls also saw the 10th-highest rate of midrange jump shots nationally after conference play, giving Florida Atlantic a key defensive advantage in this game.
The excitement around head coach Dusty May and his offense revolves around their propensity to hit 3-point attempts in transition. The Owls are 25th nationally in point distribution from beyond the arc, specifically firing the 17th-most off-the-dribble 3-point attempts.
Although San Diego State didn't see many off-the-dribble triples in Mountain West play, the Aztecs are seventh nationally in defending the off-the-dribble 3s.
Look for plenty of variables in the first half of this game, from Florida Atlantic hoisting shots from deep to San Diego State's sluggish offensive pace.
While the Aztecs look inside for points and Florida Atlantic attacks from the outside, keep in mind that both defenses hold clear advantages in rebounding.
With few quick putbacks expected, a slow pace and no intentional fouling in the first half, look for the first Final Four game to have an ugly stat line.
Verdict: 1H Under 61
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 UConn
Total: 149.5 · Projected: 151.5
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A massive 13-2 run from Miami erased a game-long deficit against Texas in the Elite Eight.
The Longhorns held a 13-point lead with 12 minutes to play before Miami took the outright lead off of jumpers and free throws. Miami finished 28-of-32 from the charity stripe, far exceeding its season-long average of 78% from the line. Considering the fact UConn fouls at one of the highest rates in the nation, the Hurricanes will need that hot shooting from the stripe to contend in this game.
Head coach Jim Larrañaga prefers tempo with this version of the Hurricanes offense, turning it into a top-20 transition team in frequency and efficiency.
Miami does run an effective pick-and-roll set along with attacks at the rim, but both areas will be contested by a UConn defense that's firing on all cylinders. Arkansas' main point of attack against UConn came at the rim, while Gonzaga looked at cut plays to create jump shots. The Huskies had answers for both offenses and contested every shot, which ultimately led to the Zags finishing 2-of-20 from the 3-point line.
For Miami to win this game, the Huskies defense must be challenged in midrange and post-up plays, where UConn ranks outside the top 280 in defensive efficiency.
UConn has found success running different types of tempo during the tournament. The Huskies pounded Saint Mary’s by double digits with only 64 possessions before blowing out Gonzaga in a 72-possession game.
Dan Hurley prefers his offense to run a heavy amount of screens with catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. The Huskies are 239th in average offensive possession length, signaling that a slow rolling transition to setup offense is in store for Miami in the Final Four.
Miami beat Texas with hot shooting, finishing with a field goal percentage over 59%. That must continue against a UConn defense that stifled Arkansas and Gonzaga and ranks eighth nationally in effective field goal percentage.
Look for UConn to bring the ball up the court at a slower pace, setting up the screens and 3-point attempts that Hurley desires.
If UConn continues to challenge every shot taken by opponents, the Hurricanes may struggle to hit the jumpers that endlessly fell in the last 10 minutes of their Elite Eight victory.
Verdict: Under 149.5 |
