Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Odds
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 123 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 123 -110o / -110u | -135 |
The North Texas Mean Green will host the flourishing Florida Atlantic Owls on Thursday night in what could be a matchup between two 2023 NCAA tournament teams.
North Texas notoriously plays well on the defensive end and can be a bit lackluster offensively. The Mean Green play at the 362nd-ranked Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, while the FAU Owls rank 186th.
North Texas can defend inside and out, but FAU predominantly shoots the 3 and will do so whenever it's available.
Defensively, FAU is also solid. Since North Texas does not have the best offensive approach, FAU matches up well with the Mean Green.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
Given this game’s ramifications for the Conference USA outlook, expect both teams to be on defensively. The Mean Green should get a boost at home, and as long as this game doesn't result in OT, the under will be in play.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic might be one of the best mid-major teams in the country. Led by an onslaught of 3-point shooters, the Owls come into this game with only a close loss to Ole Miss.
Alijah Martin, Michael Forrest, Bryan Greenlee, Nick Boyd, Johnell Davis and Jalen Gaffney are all shooting at least 36% from outside the arc, with each having taken at least 22 shots.
This is one area the Owls may be able to exploit the Mean Green defense. On the season, North Texas is holding opponents to around 32% from deep — which is decent — but since FAU manufactures 37.8% of its points from outside, some 3s will inevitably fall.
That said, FAU is pretty one-dimensional. It ranks 202nd in 2-point distribution and 358th in free-throw distribution. Essentially, all of its points will come from outside.
Otherwise, North Texas will put the clamps on the Owls. The Mean Green are holding opponents to 41.5% on 2-pointers. Abou Ousmane and Aaron Scott both have block rates of 3.5%+. Vladislav Goldin is a seven-footer, but he's the Owls' only inside threat.
UNT has proven it can prevent big men from scoring, and this game will be no different.
Finally, the Mean Green do have a tendency to foul (342nd in defensive foul percentage). Still, with how little the Owls attack the basket, outside of Goldin, there will not be too many free throws.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green rank in the top 100 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but they basically get to the foul line plenty and shoot a ton of 3s. They rank 42nd in 3-point attempt percentage, but are 224th (32.3%) in 3-point percentage.
They rarely produce inside the arc, except from the line. They are shooting a paltry 44.1% from 2-point range, so with so few possessions, they will not be able to get many buckets inside.
FAU ranks 119th in free-throw attempt percentage defensively. This will open up some opportunities for Ousmane, Kai Huntsberry and Tylor Perry to get to the line. Each has at least 28 free-throw attempts, so they can force their way to the stripe when they need points.
This may be the only detriment to the FAU defensive approach because the Owls hold opponents to less than 30% from beyond the arc and 44.2% on 2-pointers.
The Mean Green will not have many opportunities to score openly.
Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Betting Pick
The Mean Green occupy 21.1 seconds per possession on offense and 18.3 seconds per possession on defense. This style of game plays into the defenses' hands. Each team will be settled in and neither will permit open looks.
Aside from FAU finding an open 3 or North Texas getting to the line a few more times than normal, this game should go under.
Take it from 126.5 (-110), and play it to 124 (-110).
