The Florida Gators take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, AR. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. The total is set at 155.5 points.
Here are my Florida vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for January 11, 2025.
Florida vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Over 154.5 (Play to 158)
My Florida vs Arkansas best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs Arkansas Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 155.5 -110 / -110 | -230 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 155.5 -110 / -110 | +190 |
- Florida vs Arkansas spread: Florida -5.5
- Florida vs Arkansas over/under: 155.5 points
- Florida vs Arkansas moneyline: Florida -230, Arkansas +190
- Florida vs Arkansas best bet: Over 154.5 (Play to 158)
Spread
I see some conflicting angles on the side here, so it's a no bet for me.
Moneyline
If you're adamantly an Arkansas bettor on Saturday, perhaps the moneyline is appealing. But I'll be leaving it alone myself.
Over/Under
This game has the potential to become a track meet, as both teams love to run. I'll be betting the over.
My Pick: Over 154.5 (Play to 158)
Florida vs Arkansas College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida Basketball
Florida has been dominant all year. The Gators are 11-4 against the spread, covering games by an average of +6.9 points per game. They've risen from 26th in KenPom to fifth via their consistent overperforming versus expectations.
But for many, the Gators needed a marquee win to legitimize their candidacy as a true national elite.
They finally got that win this week, trouncing No. 1 Tennessee 73-43 on Tuesday night in Gainesville. The Gators’ incredible physicality stood out, as they dominated the glass 56-37 (19 offensive rebounds) and clearly knocked the visiting Vols out of their comfort zone.
Sure, Tennessee shot poorly (just 12-of-56 from the field), but Florida wasn’t exactly on fire either. The Gators won by 30 because they controlled the game.
A four-man rotation up front ensures that Florida is constantly barraging the boards and attacking opposing frontcourts.
Alex Condon is the “star,” if there is one, an Australian sophomore who's continued to exhibit a growing skill set. Rueben Chinyelu is raw but enormous and active, helping him be one of the country’s best two-way rebounders. And Thomas Haugh and Sam Alexis have fit in perfectly as reserves, with Haugh especially experiencing a sophomore leap.
Playing two true bigs is a massive part of the Gators’ identity. They rank third nationally in offensive rebound rate, and their 11th-ranked 2-point percentage defense is a testament to the impact of their size.
As impressive as the frontcourt quartet is, though, the Florida backcourt is among the very best in the entire country.
Walter Clayton Jr. is a deadeye sniper who can torch nets off the catch or off the bounce. He's formed an impressive point guard partnership with FAU transfer Alijah Martin, a 6-foot-2, 210-pound tank who's an elite defender, smooth shooter and nuclear athlete.
Will Richard brings more size and shooting, and Denzel Aberdeen has evolved into a legitimate threat off the bench after being a bit player in his first two seasons.
Arkansas Basketball
“I didn’t think this would be easy. Didn’t think it would be this hard.”
John Calipari’s postgame comments after Arkansas’ home loss to Ole Miss on Wednesday have made the internet rounds, evidencing the aura of uncertainty around this Razorback season.
The Hogs have started SEC play 0-2, including that defeat to Ole Miss in which Arkansas controlled the first 15 minutes.
The Hogs never led in the second half, though, and the concern around the team extends much further than Calipari.
The offense is particularly troublesome. Arkansas clearly lacks the dynamism of last year’s Kentucky squad, when Calipari handed the offensive reins to John Welch and let his team of snipers rain down fire from beyond the arc.
This team also lacks the physicality and frontcourt aggression that characterized Cal’s best Kentucky squads; this is (by far) the worst offensive rebounding team he's had in the KenPom era.
Too often, the offense devolves into a “my turn, your turn” affair with dynamo freshman Boogie Fland, athletic mismatch Adou Thiero and sophomore guard D.J. Wagner.
As a result, teams have zoned Arkansas at one of the highest rates on the country (24.0% of possessions, per Synergy), thwarting any flow the Razorback offense might have.
Wildly enough, the best isolation scorer on the team might be Johnell Davis, the FAU transfer who's looked lost in the shuffle for most of the season. He’s used to having the ball in his hands, and he's struggled to fit in on a team with worse spacing and ball movement.
The frontcourt will need to be on its game in this matchup. Zvonimir “Big Z” Ivisic and Jonas Aidoo have somewhat underwhelmed as a center platoon, and Trevon Brazile might actually be the best pairing with Thiero’s slashing.
Unfortunately, Brazile’s shooting stroke has completely abandoned him (23.1% from deep, 53% from the free throw line).
Florida vs. Arkansas Betting Analysis
From a spot perspective, this sets up as an outstanding “buy-low, sell-high” opportunity.
The Razorbacks have lost two consecutive games to begin SEC play, and their backs are against the wall with an imposing SEC schedule ahead. Losing two home games already would be a disaster.
Florida, on the other hand, couldn't be riding any higher after its demolition of the AP Poll’s top-ranked team. Human nature would imply a letdown emotionally in a challenging environment.
Of course, the spot could be canceled out by how drastically different each team is in their stages of development. Florida knows exactly who it is, playing to its strengths with a bunch of players who seem to genuinely enjoy taking the floor together. The role allocation is nearly perfect already.
Arkansas, on the other hand, remains a disjointed mess, with questions about the rotation and offensive pecking order.
With those two angles canceling each other out, I'll instead look to the total. Florida is coming off that blowout win against Tennessee; with the outcome decided early, the two squads simply played out the string in a slow-paced slog.
Similarly, Arkansas is coming off two slower contests (65 possessions, tied for the Razorbacks’ slowest of the season).
In a vacuum, both teams prefer an up-and-down game. Florida ranks 22nd in average offensive possession length, while Arkansas is 62nd in the same statistic. This game’s pace could have some “slingshot” effect to it after they both crawled through their previous contests.
Notably, Calipari (at UK) faced Todd Golden’s Florida twice last year; those two games had 82 and 80 possessions (the second game went to OT).
I expect this game to become a track meet in line with last January’s shootout, with both teams wanting to push the pace.
Give me the over up to 158 points.
