The Florida Gators take on the Auburn Tigers in Auburn, Alabama. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Auburn is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here are my Florida vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for February 8, 2025.
Florida vs Auburn Prediction
My Pick: Auburn -8.5 (Play to -9)
My Florida vs Auburn best bet is on the Tigers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs Auburn Odds, Spread, Pick
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | +375 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | -500 |
- Florida vs Auburn spread: Auburn -9.5
- Florida vs Auburn over/under: 157.5 points
- Florida vs Auburn moneyline: Auburn -500, Florida +375
- Florida vs Auburn best bet: Auburn -8.5 (Play to -9)
My Florida vs Auburn College Basketball Betting Preview
Auburn is in the midst of a dream season. The Tigers have re-claimed the No. 1 spot in KenPom and still have just one loss — in Durham versus Duke.
Of the utmost importance, Auburn has dominated in the Jungle. Only Tennessee has given Auburn a real battle at home, losing a two-point duel two weeks ago.
It was Johni Broome's first game returning from an injury and the team shot less than 40% from 2 and 3-of-20 from 3. That performance looks more and more like an outlier.
Broome is the heart and soul of this Tigers team. He affects the game in every way imaginable. The 6-foot-11 big can roll out of bed and drop a double-double with three assists and a pair of blocks, which is his season-average.
Broome's ability to make his teammates better is perhaps his most underrated skill. He's one of the best players in college hoops at passing out of double teams, and when a double arrives, that means a shooter is open.
Betting on Auburn at home has been very profitable, as it enters this contest with a 6-3-1 ATS mark (third in the SEC behind Texas A&M and Georgia).
From a matchup perspective, Auburn is flat out dominant on both ends of the floor. The Tigers boast America's best offense, per KenPom, and have also risen to 12th in defensive efficiency.
I don't think the 12th-most efficient defense does Auburn justice, though.
The Tigers struggle in one area: ranking 290th in KenPom's FTA/FGA metrics. Drawing fouls is the only real way to score on Auburn, as it holds opponents 44% shooting from 2 (11th nationally) and 30% from 3 (27th nationally).
The good news is Florida's offense centers around the perimeter. The Gators don't get to the line often, so Auburn will be able to counteract Florida's strengths.
Good luck to the opponents scoring on Broome and Dylan Cardwell on the interior. Both rank in the top 40 in block rate and erase any chance of teams scoring at the tin.
Cardwell is on a short list of the nation's most underrated players. Bruce Pearl will never draw a play up for Cardwell, but his rebounding, defense and energy makes him an invaluable piece.
Florida is also having a terrific season, one of the best since Billy Donovan was at the helm. Coach Todd Golden has the Gators sitting at 19-3, with a 5-3 record in conference play — two of the losses came in road tilts versus Tennessee and Kentucky.
I envision Florida struggling to score versus Auburn's defense — like it did against Tennessee. The Vols contested every 3-point shot and Florida went 4-of-27 from downtown. Scoring inside was pretty rough too, as it shot 34% on 2s.
The key to the Gators' success is their guards scoring and offensive rebounding. They have three stud guards who can all erupt for 15+ points on any given night — Walter Clayton Jr, Alijah Martin and Will Richard.
Keep a tab on the status of Martin and Clayton. Clayton should play, but ankle issues are tricky. Meanwhile, Martin is nursing a hip issue, so neither will be 100% for this one.
Despite having stud guards, the Gators shoot just 33% from deep on healthy volume (41% of their shots come from 3). I wouldn't categorize Florida as a "good" shooting team, but a 41% offensive rebounding rate masks the inconsistent shooting.
Whereas Florida is very boom-or-bust from deep, its opponent is very consistent. Auburn connects on 3s at a 37% clip, with four players — Tahaad Pettiford, Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones and Miles Kelly — all shooting 38% or better from deep.
The real differentiator is Broome's gravity, which opens the floor for shooters.
Florida has energy/pick-and-pop bigs rather than a big like Broome, who can dominate a game. Alex Condon is the best of the Florida frontcourt, as he's averaging 11 points per game. Meanwhile Thomas Haugh is very solid as a backup big and Ruben Chinyelu is an awesome rebounder.
However, there's no questioning Auburn has a considerable edge on the interior.
I see a pretty sizable gap between Auburn, Duke and everybody else. On a neutral court, for instance, I'd probably take Auburn -5 over Florida, so is the home environment in Auburn worthy of laying the extra 3.5 points? Yes.
The Tigers are just too dominant at home and Martin and Clayton both dealing with injuries is rough timing for the Gators. Teams need their A+ game to beat the top-ranked squad in KenPom, and a perfect game will be tough to achieve with hobbled guards.
