The Florida Gators take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, FL. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
The Gators are favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. The total is also set at 157 points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Florida State predictions and college basketball picks for November 15, 2024.
Florida vs Florida State Prediction
My Pick: Over 157
My Florida vs Florida State best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs Florida State Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -112 | 157 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -108 | 157 -110o / -110u | +170 |
- Florida vs Florida State spread: Florida -5
- Florida vs Florida State over/under: 157
- Florida vs Florida State moneyline: Florida -205, Florida St +170
- Florida vs Florida State best bet: Over 157
Spread
With the current state of the Florida program in flux, I don't love betting on or against the Gators, especially as favorites in a hostile road environment. This spread is a stay-away for me.
Moneyline
A slight lean toward the home Seminoles here with value at nearly +200.
Over/Under
Both of these teams play fast and are due for some positive shooting regression. I'm happy to wager on a high score.
My Pick: Over 157
Florida vs Florida State College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida Basketball
Florida is a basketball program currently in the news for happenings away from the court. Head coach Todd Golden is reportedly under investigation for acts described as sexual harassment and stalking by the student newspaper The Alligator.
With the investigation underway, Golden has remained with the team on the sidelines, even after the news broke last week.
On the court, Florida has won three games by 15 or more points, yet sits just 1-2 against the spread because of a very weak early-season schedule. The trip to Tallahassee to play in-state rival Florida State marks the first on-court test for the Gators this season.
On paper, Florida is a team built to compete among the SEC's best and earn an at-large bid in March. A backcourt of Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Alijah Martin — formerly of Florida Atlantic's Final Four team — makes for a solid backbone.
Golden's teams have always played fast and shot a ton of 3s, with Clayton, Richard and Martin acting as the catalysts for that strategy this year.
Florida State Basketball
Florida State, on the other hand, was not a team with expectations this season. Oddsmakers listed the Seminoles toward the bottom of the newly-bloated ACC.
So far, the Noles have at least held serve, winning games against three mid-majors in the season's first few weeks.
Leonard Hamilton's team is led by Jamir Watkins, a 23-year-old former VCU Ram. This season, Watkins is averaging 18.3 points per game despite shooting just 23% from outside the arc (well below his 34% mark from last season).
Everything beyond Watkins is a projection. Hamilton doesn't have another rotation player that made meaningful contributions for the Noles or any other power conference team last season.
If Florida State is going to stay afloat this season, it will do so defensively, where Hamilton's teams have always made their mark.
So far, the Seminoles have been up to the task, forcing turnovers at a top-10 rate nationally and keeping all three opponents at or under 65 points.
Florida vs Florida State Betting Analysis
Both of these teams rank in the top 50 nationally in tempo, with average offensive possessions ranking in the top 30 in the country. They are both looking to run when they have the chance.
Perhaps more importantly, both are due for some positive shooting regression. Florida is shooting just 26% from outside the arc this year, with Florida State even worse at 21%. No power conference team shot under 28% last season, so no matter the shooting talent here, you'd expect a bounce back.
For Florida, there are some obvious candidates to get hot soon. Martin is a career 37% shooter from outside who is currently hitting just 27% from deep. Richard, a 36% shooter at Florida, is 4-of-18 early in the year. Forwards Sam Alexis and Thomas Haugh are not as reliable shooters, yet are still better than their combined 1-of-10 to start the season.
If both teams look to push the ball and the 3s start falling, this game will tip over the total.
