The Florida Gators take on the Houston Cougars in the NCAA National Championship. Tip-off is set for 8:50 p.m. ET on CBS.
Florida is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 140.5 points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for April 7, 2025.
Florida vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Houston ML -102
My Florida vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars moneyline, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs Houston Odds, Spread, Pick
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- Florida vs Houston spread: Florida -1
- Florida vs Houston over/under: 140.5 points
- Florida vs Houston moneyline: Florida -115, Houston -105
- Florida vs Houston best bet: Houston ML -102
My Florida vs Houston National Championship Betting Preview
You can never put the Florida Gators away. For a third time in the NCAA Tournament, the Gators looked doomed. Instead, the high-powered Florida offense found its footing late and the Gators advanced to the title game.
As for Houston, a lot of the same can be said. Coming back from down seven with a minute left and down 14 with eight minutes left in the Final Four is unheard of.
Those comebacks will lead to real contrasting styles in the championship game.
Houston is the best team in America in two pivotal areas. The first is defensive efficiency, which isn’t surprising for a Kelvin Sampson-coached team. The other is 3-point percentage at 39.9%. Even when the Coogs can’t score inside, they can fill it up from deep — like we saw against Duke.
LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp each hit some very timely shots in that Final Four affair. Cryer poured in 26 points against Duke, and Sharp always finds a way to hit a clutch 3.
What I’m most interested to see is how those guards defend Florida’s backcourt.
Houston is the best defensive team for a reason, but Florida ranks second in offensive efficiency and has some really dominant guards. I expect the Coogs to hard hedge on pick-and-rolls and then recover onto the bigs.
However, when Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh are on the floor, they’ll likely float to the perimeter for a pick-and-pop 3.
While that might seem like an advantage for Florida, I’d argue the opposite. The Cougars hold teams to 30% shooting from 3 and 44% from 2. If you’re forcing the Gators to a perimeter-oriented attack, it could lead to some late-clock half-court possessions.
Meanwhile, Walter Clayton Jr is playing like 2025's version of Kemba Walker. He’s on a tear like none other, scoring 30+ points in back-to-back games.
He’ll likely get his points in this one, but Sampson is typically pretty good at figuring out ways to contain star players. Maybe he mixes in some double teams to keep the ball out of Clayton’s hands and make him a passer, which isn’t his forte.
The Gators got shredded by Auburn on the offensive glass in the first half. We’ll see how big of a role that is in this game, as the Cougars boast a 37% offensive rebound rate, compared to Florida’s mediocre 133rd defensive rebound rate.
That’s one of the biggest swing categories in a game like this. If a team like Houston — which plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country — can control the tempo by retaining the ball via offensive rebounds, that greatly favors it.
All in all, this game feels like whoever dictates the pace will win. Florida can’t beat Houston in a half-court game and Houston can’t beat Florida in a shootout.
I think Houston has more ways to beat the Gators, though. The offensive boards and shooting are huge in this matchup and will lead to Houston capturing its first ever national title.
I think Houston should be favored by a point, so I’ll grab the Cougars moneyline in the title game.
