The Florida Gators take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Florida is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -110. The total is set at 153.5 points.
Here are my Florida vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for February 11, 2025.
Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: Mississippi State +2.5 (Play to +2)
My Florida vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs Mississippi State Odds, Lines, Pick
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 153.5 -110 / -110 | -142 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 153.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
- Florida vs Mississippi State spread: Florida -1
- Florida vs Mississippi State over/under: 153.5 points
- Florida vs Mississippi State moneyline: Florida -110, Mississippi State -110
- Florida vs Mississippi State best bet: Mississippi State +2.5 (Play to +2)
My Florida vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
Yes, this is a picture-perfect letdown spot. Fresh off a drubbing of No. 1 Auburn, the Florida Gators head to StarkVegas to face a very good Mississippi State squad.
The Gators' offense was electric against Auburn's strong defense, scoring 1.22 PPP. The biggest key was ball movement, as they tallied an assist on 22 of their 31 made shots.
Florida was without second-leading scorer Alijah Martin, who suffered a hip injury two games ago versus Vandy, but all reports point toward Martin returning for this contest.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs snapped a two-game losing streak — both of which came at home to Missouri and Alabama — with a road win over Georgia.
At some point, Mississippi State will turn around the losing fortune in Starkville. Chris Jans has really gotten the program rolling again, and I could see the win over Georgia sparking something in this team.
Mississippi State is due for positive regression defensively. The Bulldogs' defense took a step back because of roster construction, but opponents are shooting 36% from 3 against them compared to an expected 34% (per ShotQuality).
They do have to get better at controlling the glass, though. With Florida's dominance on the offensive boards (39.8% offensive rebound rate), a key part of this handicap is Mississippi State holding its own in that area. However, it ranks just 211th in defensive rebounding rate.
Jans definitely sold out for offense this year, and I don't blame him. While Mississippi State managed to make the NCAA Tournament the past two years, it failed to crack 60 points during two quick exits.
Now the Bulldogs' offense is a strength, ranking 19th in KenPom's offensive efficiency. The trio of star guard Josh Hubbard and stout veterans Claudell Harris Jr. and Riley Kugel combine for big scoring numbers.
Hubbard is the most important of the bunch, as he's a dynamite, quick scorer with a smooth jumper.
Oddly enough, Mississippi State is shooting 29% from 3 in SEC play and 31% in general. Hubbard, Kugel and Harris are shooting between 34-36% from deep in league play, but nobody else on the roster shoots it consistently.
If that trio can't hit around 40% from deep, someone in the RJ Melendez/KeShawn Murphy/Shawn Jones Jr. group needs to help.
Florida is an exceptional team with legitimate Final Four aspirations. I just think this spot is pretty difficult, as it's coming off an emotional win against the No. 1 team on the road.
Auburn seemed ill-prepared to defend Florida's skilled bigs, Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, and that was the real difference in that game.
We know guards Will Richard and Walter Clayton Jr. will put up 15+ points. But if those two get hot, you can't allow Condon and Haugh to go off — and they combined for 33 points, 18 rebounds and seven assists vs. Auburn.
The Bulldogs' bigs — Murphy, Cameron Matthews and Michael Nwoko — are physical players who could make life more difficult for Condon and Haugh.
Plus, Florida is the perfect team to finally give Mississippi State that positive shooting regression. The Gators run and gun, playing at the 90th-fastest tempo in the country and taking 3s at a 42% clip.
Another regression angle to watch is on Florida's side, as it holds teams to an unsustainable 28% from downtown.
Conversely, ShotQuality considers Florida quite fortunate to have held teams down to this degree — it has Florida's field goal percentage allowed at 34% compared to the actual 28%. Florida is 324th at allowing high-quality 3-point looks, too.
I think the spot lines up perfectly for the home Bulldogs. The letdown for Florida — paired with the regression tilting in Mississippi State's direction — makes backing the home team the smart plan.
