The Florida Gators take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, Tennessee. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Tennessee is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks for February 1, 2025.
Florida vs Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Tennessee -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
My Florida vs Tennessee best bet is on the Volunteers spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs Tennessee Odds, Spread, Pick
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | +180 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | -220 |
- Florida vs Tennessee spread: Tennessee -5
- Florida vs Tennessee over/under: 143.5 points
- Florida vs Tennessee moneyline: Tennessee -220, Florida +180
- Florida vs Tennessee best bet: Tennessee -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
My Florida vs Tennessee College Basketball Betting Preview
I love this spot for the Vols for a few reasons.
About three weeks ago, Tennessee got its doors blown off by 30 points in a loss to Florida. There's no shame in losing to the Gators in Gainesville, but shooting 4-of-29 from 3 is insane.
Second, the Vols dropping back-to-back games — including a home loss to Kentucky — provides extra fuel to beat Florida in round two.
Shooting was a real struggle in the past two games. Tennessee went 4-of-22 from 3 in the loss to Auburn and 11-of-45 versus Kentucky (in the UK game, a large chunk of the shots were wide-open looks).
Was it just an off shooting stretch for the Vols? I think so.
That said, shooting will dictate whether Tennessee posts another sub-60-point scoring output or a big showing. The Vols attempt 3s on 44% of their possessions and hit 33% from deep.
Chaz Lanier is a big part of that. Lanier is the most explosive scoring option on the roster, which makes his shooting of the utmost importance.
Beyond Lanier, Tennessee needs scoring from fellow 10+ point-per-game scorers, point guard Zakai Zeigler (questionable, shoulder), forward Igor Milicic Jr. and shooting guard Jordan Gainey. It’s been a nightmare of late for Zeigler, as he's gone 1-of-17 from 3 in the past two games.
I have faith in that trio shooting it better, though.
Also, Tennessee is among the top defensive units in America, ranking third in defensive efficiency and first at limiting teams' perimeter shooting (26% from 3). Opponents also turn the ball over 20% of the time and shoot 45% from inside the arc (17th nationally).
Meanwhile, Todd Golden has Florida in a position to compete for a national title this year. The Gators have lost twice all season — one coming on the road to Kentucky and the other at home to Missouri.
The Gators are phenomenal on both ends of the floor, ranking third in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive efficiency.
The trio of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard orchestrate the majority of Florida’s offensive success, combining for 39 points per game. All three are good, but aren't elite shooters, each ranging from 34-36% from deep.
Like Tennessee, Florida’s offense centers around the 3-point arc. The Gators attempt 3s on 41% of their shots and connect on 34%.
The good thing is even if the shots don’t fall, the Gators' bigs are exceptional on the offensive glass. They gobble up 41% of missed shots, so for this handicap to come to fruition, Tennessee can’t get torched on the glass.
I think pace will determine much of what happens in Knoxville. Tennessee is back to its roots, deploying the 336th-ranked tempo in KenPom. Meanwhile, Florida’s modern offense aims to push the tempo.
If the game is slower, it bodes well for the Vols, and I think that'll be the case, especially in Knoxville in a difficult spot for Florida.
Plus, Florida didn’t have a crazy offense showing in the first matchup between the two. Scoring 1.07 PPP versus Tennessee’s vaunted defense is nothing to sneeze at. However, it was Tennessee’s unfortunate shooting luck that led to the blowout.
The Vols are beyond due for a strong shooting performance to tilt in their direction.
