The Florida State Seminoles take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Duke is favored by 22.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -8000. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Florida State vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 1, 2025.
Florida State vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Under 149.5
My Florida State vs Duke best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida State vs Duke Odds
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -108 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +2200 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -112 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -8000 |
- Florida St vs Duke spread: Duke -22.5
- Florida St vs Duke over/under: 149.5 points
- Florida St vs Duke moneyline: Duke -8000, Florida State +2200
- Florida St vs Duke best bet: Under 149.5
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
The schematic matchup points toward the under.
My Pick: Under 149.5
Florida State vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
I have been woefully unimpressed with Florida State’s offense this year. It's overly reliant on transition, isolation, post-ups, free throws and second-chance buckets.
The Seminoles surround this rudimentary, interior-based offense with almost zero spacing and shooting, which isn’t the best way to operate in the modern era.
Leonard Hamilton’s scheme will likely be useless against Duke’s dominant interior defense. The Blue Devils have loads of length and switchability, combined with elite rim protection between Khaman Maluach and Cooper Flagg.
Ultimately, scoring on the interior against the Blue Devils is nearly impossible, and they’re always an elite transition-denial defense under head coach Jon Scheyer. The Seminoles are in for a rough 40 minutes of basketball in Durham on Saturday.
However, I think Florida State can hang on the other end of the court.
Duke’s motion-based offense is predicated on perimeter stagger screens to get shooters out into space. However, Hamilton’s Florida State teams are always lengthy, and his switch-everything defensive scheme is generally elite at denying those off-ball screening actions.
The Seminoles allow the fifth-fewest off-ball screening points per game nationally (0.9, per Synergy).
Duke will eventually adjust and find ways to score. Still, Scheyer is hesitant to run anything besides his base motion offense, so I could see the Blue Devils struggling to find consistent offense for much of the game.
Therefore, I expect a lower-scoring game as both offenses struggle to run their schemes against lengthy opposing defenses in bad matchups.
I'll take the under.
