The Florida State Seminoles take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, Kentucky. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on The CW.
Louisville is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -900. The total is set at 154 points.
Here are my Florida State vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for February 22, 2025.
Florida State vs Louisville Prediction
My Pick: Under 149 or Better
My Florida State vs Louisville best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida State vs Louisville Odds, Spread, Pick
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 154 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 154 -110o / -110u | -900 |
- Florida State vs Louisville spread: Louisville -13.5
- Florida State vs Louisville over/under: 154 points
- Florida State vs Louisville moneyline: Louisville -900, Florida State +600
- Florida State vs Louisville best bet: Under 149 or Better
My Florida State vs Louisville College Basketball Betting Preview
These two played back in late December and Louisville dropped 90 on Florida State in Tallahassee by shooting 15-for-29 (52%) from 3 in a 14-point win.
However, overshadowed by that was Florida State’s surprisingly effective offensive performance, as the Seminoles shot 21-for-35 (60%) from the interior by dominating in transition (16 points on nine possessions, 1.78 PPP, per Synergy) and post-up sets (18 points on 19 possessions, .95 PPP, per Synergy).
That said, I think both teams overachieved in that battle. ShotQuality graded the game as a 73-62 Louisville win based on the “quality” of attempts for both teams.
The Cardinals are a fantastic spacing-and-shooting squad, but expecting them to shoot 52% from deep in the rematch is unrealistic, especially after they shot 9-for-12 (75%) on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers.
That’s especially true against a Florida State defense that’s typically good at defending the 3 because of its length and perimeter switching.
The Seminoles’ defensive structure funnels opponents into isolation rather than allowing solid secondary creation.
Louisville isn’t an excellent on-ball isolation offense, which showed in the first matchup. The Cardinals scored 13 points on 16 isolation sets (.81 PPP, per Synergy), including a 2-for-9 (22%) shooting performance on single-covered isolation sets (.44 PPP, per Synergy).
On the other end of the court, Florida State will continue to run its pace-and-post offense, working in transition while dumping the ball down low for post-up opportunities, drawing fouls and snagging offensive rebounds.
The Cardinals have been the ACC’s best defensive-rebounding squad in league play, and they rarely foul — Florida State earned just three offensive rebounds and 14 free throw attempts in that December meeting.
And I firmly believe they’ve improved in post- and transition-denial since the last head-to-head matchup with Florida State.
Louisville ranks fifth in the ACC in fast-break points per game during conference play (seven, per CBB Analytics) and above the nation average in post-up PPP allowed (.82, per Synergy).
I’m a tad worried about the pace, given both teams rank among the ACC’s top three in adjusted tempo.
That said, the first matchup finished at just 66 possessions, and I don’t expect them to combine for over 1.25 PPP again. Instead, I expect a drastic decrease in efficiency for both squads — if played at the same pace, 1.12 combined PPP would cash the under.
For what it’s worth, these two are a combined 33-18 to the under this season, and four consecutive Florida State games have stayed under the closing total.
I’ll bank on more of the same.
