#4 Florida St. vs. #13 Vermont NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Florida St. -11
- Over/Under: 160.5
- Date: Thursday, March 21
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Hartford, Conn.
- TV: TBS
Florida State's Statistical Profile
Led by a balanced attack on the offensive side of the ball — forward Mfiondu Kabengele (12.9 ppg) and guard Terance Mann (11.4 ppg) were the only players to average double-digit points scored this season — Florida State finished the regular season as the best of the rest in the ACC, trailing only Virginia, North Carolina and Duke.
The Seminoles also entered the ACC Tournament with plenty of momentum, winning 13 of their final 14 games with the only loss coming on the road to North Carolina. FSU carried that momentum to the ACC Tournament finals before falling to Zion Williamson and Duke, 73-63. — PJ Walsh
- Record: 27-7
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 15
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 38
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
- Tempo Rank: 122
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Vermont's Statistical Profile
Last year Vermont lost the America East title game to UMBC in heartbreaking fashion. This year, the Catamounts (27-6, 14-2 conference) got their revenge, beating UMBC 66-49 to earn their seventh trip to the Big Dance.
The Cats will look to shock the world like they did in 2005 when they upset Syracuse and the analytics give them a decent chance at doing just that. UVM plays a well-balanced game, rating 83rd in adjusted efficiency, including 105th in offensive efficiency and 91st in defensive efficiency.
The Cats are led by star junior forward and America East player of the year Anthony Lamb (21.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG). Vermont plays a deliberate pace, ranking 285th in tempo, which bettors should keep in mind when considering an early round under play. — Josh Appelbaum
- Record: 27-6
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 83
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 105
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 91
- Tempo Rank: 285
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Florida St.-Vermont Instant Bracket, Betting Picks
Vermont was the mid major darling most of us wanted paired with a weak Power Five opponent, but Florida State is not that team. This is a Seminole roster, led by Mann, that lost to Duke in the ACC Championship game and previously made the Elite 8 in last year's tournament.
The Catamounts were a threat to advance because of their success in offensive categories and a sneaky rank of second nationally in opponent offensive rebounds. That won't be enough against an athletic Florida State team that is ninth overall in defensive adjusted efficiency.
The Seminoles played a strength of schedule of 26th, have an average height that is 12th and frequently rely on reserves with a rank of 32nd in bench minutes. Florida State will have too much athleticism for Vermont.
Early ATS lean: Florida St.
Early bracket pick: Florida St. — Collin
Sean Koerner's Florida State-Vermont Projections
Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.
- Spread: Florida State -11
- Total: 134.5
- Proj Score: Florida State 73 | Vermont 62
- Win Probability: Florida State 86.3% | Vermont 13.7%
