Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll.
To start this season, the dynamic duo has Friday college basketball predictions, including a pick for Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina.
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Calabrese's 2 Friday Picks
The Blue Devils' comfort zone last year was slow-paced games played in the 60s and low 70s. Duke closed last season 8-1 SU in games in which it held its opponents below 70 points. The Blue Devils were 6-3 ATS in those games as well.
It’s where the Blue Devils wanted to live under new head coach Jon Scheyer.
Arizona never throttles down its offense, which is why it can take Duke to a place it doesn’t want to go. Last season, under Mark Few disciple Tommy Lloyd, the Wildcats pushed a tempo that ranked seventh-fastest in the country and finished top three in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, according to Bart Torvik.
And I believe they have an even higher ceiling now that Kerr Kriisa is off the roster.
Kriisa’s uneven performances often left the door open for U-of-A to underachieve. This was never more apparent than in the NCAA tournament, when the Wildcats were upset by Princeton. Kriisa shot 1-for-7 from long range, and had more turnovers than points (4 to 3).
Kylan Boswell steps in at the point, and as a Wildcat-backer, I couldn’t be happier. He has the potential to be a super-efficient floor general, and his 2023 debut validated that — 18/5 on 70% shooting. If he keeps them moving at warp speed without the turnovers that Kriisa brought with him, this offense has a chance to thrive even without Ąžuolas Tubelis stuffing stat sheets.
Lloyd’s savvy additions of Caleb Love (UNC) and Keshad Johnson (SDSU) through the portal — along with top-100 recruit KJ Lewis out of high school — demonstrate his desire to add players with toughness.
Lewis has a chance to be a difference maker as a defensive stopper right away, evidenced by his debut in which he racked up five steals in just 18 minutes of work.
Duke was on the cusp of being special last season on the defensive end when it turned games into half-court battles. But I see Arizona speeding things up and taking advantage of Duke’s lone weakness on the defensive end — the lack of a true rim defender.
That should set the stage for a big game from Oumar Ballo. My pick for Breakout Player of the Year in the Pac-12 closed last season by averaging 16 points, nine rebounds and 1.5 “stocks” per game in Zona’s conference tournament and the NCAA tournament.
If he plays that way on Friday, it’ll come down to foul shots late, which is why I’m happily taking this spread that's near two full possessions.
Pick: Arizona +5.5
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There are two simple angles to follow in this game: the Purdue revenge tour and the catastrophic loss of the reigning OVC Player of the Year for Morehead State.
Let’s start with the latter first.
Mark Freeman was an absolute killer last year for the Eagles. Not only did he dominate the Ohio Valley, but he even lifted Morehead to an NIT upset of Clemson with a 19/4/3 performance. He shot better than 36% from deep, was a closer in tight games (86% FT) and ran the point all at the same time.
He was the heartbeat of this team and he injured his wrist so badly two weeks ago that he’s out for the entire 2023-24 season.
If Freeman had opted to play overseas or test the NBA draft waters this past summer, Morehead would've had an opportunity to replace him at the point. That’s why the timing of this injury is so devastating.
His absence puts significant pressure on combo guard Jordan Lathon to be more of a facilitator. There was hope with Freeman creating on the perimeter that Xavier transfer Dieonte Miles could blossom at the mid-major level.
But now with chemistry issues on the perimeter and an opponent with a massive frontcourt advantage on deck, things are looking very dicey for MSU in this one.
Now back to the Purdue side of things. Last season, Purdue had the National Player of the Year in Zach Edey, but at times not much else. The Boilermakers were 273rd in 3-point shooting percentage, they preferred to play at a snail’s pace (330th) and they had issues getting consistent scoring out of Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis and Braden Smith.
But Smith and Loyer were freshmen and return with experience and more urgency. You saw that on full display in the opener, when they shot a combined 8-for-14 from 3-point range in limited minutes.
As a team, Purdue looked energized, playing at a much faster pace than we saw in 2022-23.
Morehead generally likes to play slow, which is why it’s crucial that we see another performance from Purdue where it pushes the pace. I still believe it's looking to silence the doubters from last season’s disastrous upset in the Big Dance, and it'll play faster to exploit a Morehead team with limited scoring options.
I would play this up to 28.5.
Pick: Purdue -26.5 (Play to -28.5)
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McGrath's 2 Friday Picks
I rely heavily on returning production in early-season college basketball betting. Generally, the team with more continuity will beat the team with less in November and December.
However, both Dartmouth and UMass Lowell return a reasonable amount. Eight of the Big Green’s top 10 scorers return, and Lowell returns three starters and seven players who averaged over 10 minutes per game last season.
So, the nice part about handicapping this game is we can evaluate these teams straight up. And most of last year’s numbers actually hold value in this game – rare in the transfer portal world.
Straight up, Lowell is a far better team than Dartmouth, and the schematic matchup is relatively favorable.
As an aside: If you’re unfamiliar with my work, I’m the Action Network’s resident America East expert. So, if you want to learn more about UMass Lowell, check out my AmEast manifesto here.
Lowell was one of mid-majordum’s best teams last season, racking up a program-record 26 wins and almost unseating Vermont as conference overlords. This year’s returning group of guys can win the conference.
Dartmouth’s group of returning guys finished last season 10-18, including 4-10 in conference play and sixth in the Ivy standings.
Plus, it’s worth mentioning that while the Ivy has a decent group of teams and depth, the top of the AmEast has fared well against the Ivy in recent years.
Here are some notable results from last season:
- Vermont over Brown, 80-65
- Vermont over Dartmouth, 65-52
- UMass Lowell over Columbia, 89-62
- UMass Lowell over Brown, 73-62
- Bryant over Dartmouth, 89-70
To be fair, Bryant lost to Brown, 72-60, and New Hampshire dropped tilts with Columbia (56-52) and Brown (67-51). That said, I’m pretty sure the best of the America East tops the dregs of the Ivy.
Plus, you can see the Big Green got shelled by their non-con AmEast opponents. Lowell is better than Bryant and comparable to Vermont, so using the transitive property, the River Hawks are better than Dartmouth.
Regarding this particular matchup, Dartmouth has two significant problems to deal with.
First, it’s weaker in the frontcourt.
Dusan Neskovic, Brandon Mitchell-Day and Jackson Munro run 6-foot-7, 6-foot-8 and 6-foot-8, respectively.
While the Big Green protected the defensive boards nicely last season, they also ranked in the 31st percentile of D-I teams in post-up PPP allowed (.886) and in the 11th percentile of teams in paint points per game allowed (34.3).
In their 2023-24 opener, they allowed Duke’s Kyle Filipowski to drop 25 on 9-for-10 shooting from 2-point range.
Lowell’s returning interior duo of 6-foot-9 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly and 6-foot-7 Max Brooks are not Filipowski, but they ain’t half-bad. Behind those two, Lowell ranked in the 97th percentile of D-I teams in paint points per game (38) and the 82nd percentile in post-up PPP (.947).
Coulibaly could eat in this game. He’s a dominant interior presence that almost demands a double-team.
On the other end of the court, Dartmouth’s offense is heavily rim-and-3 reliant. It posted-up at one of the nation’s highest rates and ranked top-70 nationally in 3-point attempt rate.
On defense, Lowell finished 14th nationally in 2-point percentage allowed (44.9%), 18th in post-up PPP allowed (.684) and seventh in ShotQuality PPP allowed at the rim (1.05). Brooks led the AmEast in block rate, and Coulibaly finished second.
And because they have a dominant interior rim-protecting duo, the Hawks can let their perimeter defenders play aggressively and funnel opponents toward the Brooks-Coulibaly duo. That resulted in a top-50 ranking in 3-point attempt rate allowed last season.
Dartmouth is at a huge disadvantage down low, which should cause all sorts of problems for its offense and defense.
You become a very efficient basketball team when you score efficiently inside and don’t let opponents score efficiently inside. We know which team has the advantage there.
The second Big Green problem is their ball-handling.
Dartmouth was sub-300th nationally in turnover rate, finishing last in the Ivy. The Big Green turned the ball over 14 times per game.
Because Lowell’s guards can play so aggressively, the Hawks finished 80th nationally and third in the AmEast in defensive turnover rate. Lowell forced 14 turnovers per game, with point guard Ayinde Hikim snagging over a steal per game.
This is a nightmare matchup for the Big Green. And after going 12-2 in the non-con last season, I expect Lowell to bowl through another inferior Ivy League opponent.
Pick: UMass Lowell -3.5
Betting two road favorites in the same column. What could possibly go wrong?!
Unlike Lowell-Dartmouth, we can handicap Va Tech-South Carolina almost entirely on returning production.
South Carolina has four new starters this year — only Meechie Johnson Jr. returns.
Virginia Tech lost a few exceptional big men, Grant Basile and Justyn Mutts. But head coach Mike Young also returns three starters, including the elite backcourt duo of Sean Pedulla and Hunter Cattoor.
Virginia Tech is working on integrating a somewhat new frontcourt, as Northwestern transfer Robbie Beran and senior Lynn Kidd will have to step up. I have questions about that frontcourt.
But I also have questions about SC’s frontcourt. The Gamecocks’ front line will rely on two low-major transfers, former Wofford center B.J. Mack and former Citadel big man Stephen Clark.
Those two put up big numbers in mid-majordum, but how will they translate to Power Five ball? And I’m pretty sure Lamont Paris is still working on his frontcourt rotations.
Therefore, this game is likely decided in the backcourt.
South Carolina recruited Minnesota transfer Ta’Lon Cooper to be Johnson’s backcourt mate, and Cooper was an incredible facilitator last season (36% assist rate!).
Still, I can’t power rate this backcourt higher than Va Tech’s. Pedulla is a rock-solid point guard who pieced together a 20% assist rate with a 14% turnover rate. Cattoor is a lights-out on-ball defender and a lights-out off-ball shooter, draining 42% of his long balls and leading the ACC in eFG% (63%).
Young runs a lot of handoffs and cutting motions to spring those guards open. For what it’s worth, South Carolina ranked in the 25th percentile of D-I teams in cutting PPP allowed (1.23) and the 43rd percentile in handoff PPP allowed (.85) last year.
The team is different, but the scheme is the same.
From a 3,000-foot perspective, Virginia Tech is a middling ACC team, while South Carolina is projected to finish last in the SEC. And while Va Tech has some continuity, especially with its ball handlers, Paris is likely still trying to build chemistry and continuity with his almost entirely new starting five.
The analytics recognize the difference, with Evan Miya and Bart Torvik projecting Virginia Tech as a six-point road favorite here.
Expect Virginia Tech’s experienced backcourt to carry the Hokies to a non-con road victory and wager accordingly.
Pick: Virginia Tech -2.5
