San Diego State vs Furman Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
| Furman Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 137.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
In their first NCAA Tournament in 43 years, the Furman Paladins march on to face the San Diego State Aztecs in the second round.
After an arrant pass from Kihei Clark, Furman's JP Pegues knocked down the go-ahead 3 to give Furman the lead with just 2.2 seconds remaining — a march moment that will live in the history books forever.
ARE YOU SERIOUS?! 😨
FURMAN WITH THE STEAL AND 3 TO TAKE THE LEAD WITH 2.2 SECONDS REMAINING #MarchMadnesspic.twitter.com/fSCNKUzboq
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 16, 2023
Now the Paladins must refocus as they take on the Mountain West champions in the Round of 32. San Diego State outlasted a spirited effort from Charleston in the first round to come out alive with a 63-57 victory.
Offensively, San Diego State was led by Matt Bradley, the only Aztec to finish in double figures.
To pick which team will punch its ticket to the Sweet 16, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Furman vs. San Diego State.
San Diego State Aztecs
Even though it faced a seven-point deficit with just over six minutes to play in the first half, San Diego State found its rhythm and cranked out a six-point victory over Charleston on Friday afternoon.
The Aztecs needed a 17-point performance from Bradley to right the ship on the offensive end. However, the team still scored only 63 points, well below its season average of 72.1.
Bradley's ability to continue to create offensively will be critical for a San Diego State offense that ranks outside the top 170 in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and 2-point percentage.
Although Furman's defense is outside the top 170 in terms of Adjusted Efficiency, it's been most comfortable in the half-court. The Paladins have one of the highest average defensive possession lengths in the country at 18.3 seconds.
This comfort in the half-court on the defensive end will be critical against a San Diego State team that averages just 66 possessions per game and ranks 253rd nationally in Adjusted Tempo.
Additionally, Furman has been great at keeping teams off the offensive glass, which will be critical against San Diego State. The Aztecs create second chances on 31.5% of their field goal attempts.
I like Furman's ability to match San Diego State's offense, which will try to utilize its physicality in the half-court.
Furman Paladins
Furman's ability to beat Tony Bennett's Virginia defense speaks to its effectiveness on the offensive end.
The Paladins rank 32nd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, with 35.3% of their points coming from beyond the arc. This outside shooting is the result of a Furman starting five that all shoots at least 33% from the perimeter.
Against Virginia, the Paladins shot 35.7% from 3-point range for 10 made 3s.
This perimeter threat will be important against a stout San Diego State defense that has allowed teams to shoot from the perimeter. Despite ranking ninth nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Aztecs have allowed their opponents to shoot 40.2% of their attempts from deep.
In particular, the Aztecs have struggled against teams with a high frequency of catch-and-shoot 3s, which the Paladins shoot at one of the highest clips in all of college basketball.
If Furman can convert the long-distance looks the Aztecs will give them, there's no reason it can't stick around and give itself a chance to make the Sweet 16.
San Diego State vs Furman Betting Pick
Although this is a potential letdown spot for Furman after the most historic win in program history, I believe this matchup with San Diego State will give it a real shot at the Sweet 16.
Offensively, Furman has the ability to convert the perimeter chances San Diego State's defense is willing to give up.
On the defensive end, the Paladins will be more than comfortable defending the Aztecs in their slow-paced half-court sets and will not allow SDSU to take advantage of them on the offensive glass.
In what's likely to be a low-scoring, affair give me the points with a Furman team that has the shooting ability to make a serious run.
Pick: Furman +6 (Play to +5) |
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