The Georgetown Hoyas take on the Providence Friars in Providence, RI. Tip-off is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Providence is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 137.5 points.
Here are my Georgetown vs. Providence predictions and college basketball picks for January 25, 2025.
Georgetown vs Providence Prediction
My Pick: Under 137 or Better | Providence ML (-120 or Better)
My Georgetown vs Providence best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Georgetown vs Providence Odds
| Georgetown Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -108 | 137.5 -112 / -108 | -105 |
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -112 | 137.5 -112 / -108 | -115 |
- Georgetown vs Providence spread: Providence -1
- Georgetown vs Providence over/under: 137.5 points
- Georgetown vs Providence moneyline: Providence -115, Georgetown -105
- Georgetown vs Providence best bet: Under 137 or Better | Providence ML (-120 or Better)
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm backing Providence to earn a home victory in a home run situational spot.
Over/Under
I'm betting on the under in what should be a lower-scoring rock fight.
My Pick: Under 137 or Better | Providence ML (-120 or Better)
Georgetown vs Providence College Basketball Betting Preview
I believe in Georgetown. Ed Cooley is doing great work with the Hoyas, with Thomas Sorber turning into a two-way superstar big man.
That said, I’m unsure how effective the Hoyas will be in this matchup.
Cooley’s offense relies more on secondary creation than on-ball dribble penetration, which typically doesn’t match up well with drop-coverage defenses that funnel the dribble into the middle of the floor.
Providence runs one of the deeper drops among high-major defenses, and the Friars are excellent at denying the rim (15 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game allowed, 87th percentile, per CBB Analytics).
So, I suspect it’ll be hard for Sorber and the rim-reliant Hoyas to generate efficient offense. They’ll have to rely on the ever-mercurial Jayden Epps to make plays off the bounce.
I say that with some caution. The Hoyas destroyed Creighton’s infamous KalkDrop in mid-December, dropping 81 at nearly 1.2 PPP.
But I think that was a one-off shooting anomaly, given the Hoyas shot 10-for-16 (63%) from 3 — ShotQuality’s post-game grading system projected Georgetown should’ve scored 64 points in that game, based on the “quality” of attempts.
The Hoyas scored 60 points at .90 PPP against West Virginia’s drop in early December and 68 at 1.05 in a road loss to DePaul’s drop last Friday. That sounds more like what we should expect.
It’s also worth mentioning that Georgetown has been smashing the offensive boards. But Providence is a rock-solid defensive rebounding team that should keep the Hoyas from too many second-chance points.
On the other end of the court, Providence has been relying heavily on attack-and-kick, catch-and-shoot creation, which has had varying results based on shooting luck. Given their 3-point-happy attitude, the Friars will be a high-variance team this year.
Unfortunately for them, Georgetown has been surprisingly effective in catch-and-shoot denial this year (11th-lowest catch-and-shoot 3-point rate allowed, per ShotQuality).
Providence has had a brutal time adjusting when opponents take away those opportunities. For example, Creighton is an elite catch-and-shoot denial defense, and the Friars managed just 64 points on .90 PPP in last Tuesday’s matchup.
Cooley will mix in plenty of junk zone looks, which could give Providence some over-the-top opportunities. But the Friars haven’t been a very efficient zone offense this year (.94 PPP, 43rd percentile, per Synergy), and they no longer have uber-versatile forward Bryce Hopkins to bust the zone as the high-post option.
Ultimately, I think it’ll be hard for either offense to work against the opposing defense, so I’m banking on a lower-scoring rock fight.
The pace should be eerily slow.
While Georgetown will sometimes try to run the open court, Providence is among the nation’s best transition-denial defenses (six fast-break points per game allowed, 94th percentile, per Synergy).
Meanwhile, the Friars refuse to force turnovers or run the open court, as they want to play almost exclusively sub-65-possession games in the half-court.
Both head-to-head matchups last season between these two stayed under the closing total, so I’m banking on more of the same.
Additionally, while I prefer the under, I can’t help but make a smaller play on Providence's moneyline.
The situational spot screams Friars. They’re due for a bounce-back win while returning home after back-to-back road losses to Creighton and Villanova, the latter coming by a single possession.
Meanwhile, the Hoyas are due for a letdown loss on the second leg of a two-game road trip after a miracle 13-point second-half comeback road victory over Villanova.
The Friars consistently have a strong home-court advantage, and Amica Mutual Pavilion should be a madhouse in Cooley’s return.
At the same time, Georgetown’s offense seems to struggle on the road, given that Hoya road games are 6-0 to the under this season. That should help get both Providence ML and the under home.
