The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford, MS. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Ole Miss is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -190. The over/under is set at 146 points.
Here are my Georgia vs. Ole Miss predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
Georgia vs Ole Miss Prediction
My Pick: Ole Miss -6 or Better
My Georgia vs Ole Miss best bet is on the Rebels spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Georgia vs Ole Miss Odds, Lines
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 146 -110 / -110 | +160 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 146 -110 / -110 | -190 |
- Georgia vs Ole Miss spread: Ole Miss -4.5
- Georgia vs Ole Miss over/under: 146 points
- Georgia vs Ole Miss moneyline: Ole Miss -190, Georgia +160
- Georgia vs Ole Miss best bet: Ole Miss -6 or Better
My Georgia vs Ole Miss College Basketball Betting Preview
The situational spot screams Ole Miss.
The Rebels are looking to bounce back after a brutal 17-point road defeat at Memphis, while the Bulldogs are due for a loss following seven consecutive wins, with the past three coming against KenPom sub-225 squads.
I also believe Georgia is a tad overvalued. The Bulldogs are 12-1, but they’ve played the 330th-toughest schedule nationally, and opponents have shot only 28% from 3 — ShotQuality projects that number should be closer to 32% based on the “quality” of attempts allowed, so I suspect some regression could kick in.
Asa Newell is a superstar, but I’m not sold on the backcourt, especially considering Georgia ranks 255th nationally in offensive turnover rate. Silas Demary Jr.’s shaky ball-handling won’t help against Chris Beard’s aggressive no-middle defense, which ranks among the top 10 in defensive turnover rate.
More generally, I don't know how Georgia will score. The Bulldogs run ball-screens and high-low concepts in the half-court, attempting to get to the interior. But Beard’s no-middle scheme is elite at denying the paint and rim (23 paint points per game allowed, 96th percentile), instead forcing teams into cross-court catch-and-shoot jumpers.
While Georgia has been a pretty solid shooting team (36% from 3), the Bulldogs mainly generate challenging, guarded catch-and-shoot opportunities (57%). I also suspect they won’t keep canning 39% of those shots.
They’re far more comfortable breaking the defense down in the paint, which won’t work against the Rebels.
I’m a tad worried about the Ole Miss offense. The Bulldogs primarily create isolation opportunities off the wing with Sean Pedulla, Jaylen Murray, Matthew Murrell and Dre Davis, and Georgia is a rock-solid isolation defense (.70 PPP allowed, 67th percentile) with plenty of length on the wing (ranking ninth nationally in average height while running between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-8 one through four).
That said, I imagine Georgia’s propensity for turnovers will gift Ole Miss some easy run-outs, and the Bulldogs’ looming negative regression on defense will hit them on the Rebels’ drive-and-kick actions.
I’m a big fan of these Rebels, especially the coaching combination of Beard and assistant Mark Adams, and I suspect they’ll have an excellent game plan following last week’s gross defeat. Ole Miss followed up its November loss to Purdue with a 23-point shellacking of Louisville on the road, and I suspect it can do the same this Saturday.
Meanwhile, the overvalued Bulldogs are due for some regression and a few more tough losses as we get into SEC play. This is an excellent spot for a letdown game.
Throw in a relatively favorable schematic matchup, and I’ll bank on the Rebels winning convincingly.
