The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets take on the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 22.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -8000. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here are my Georgia Tech vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 13, 2025.
Georgia Tech vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Under 143 or Better
My Georgia Tech vs Duke best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Georgia Tech vs Duke Odds
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -105 | 143.5 -115o / -115u | +2200 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -115 | 143.5 -105o / -115u | -8000 |
- Georgia Tech vs Duke spread: Duke -22.5
- Georgia Tech vs Duke over/under: 143.5 points
- Georgia Tech vs Duke moneyline: Duke -8000, Georgia Tech +2200
- Georgia Tech vs Duke best bet: Under 143 or Better
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I like the under in this matchup.
My Pick: Under 143 or Better
Georgia Tech vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Duke and Georgia Tech played back in late December. I wrote about that game and confidently took the under 145.5.
The Blue Devils went on to shoot 70% from 2-point range (21-for-30) and 40% from deep (10-for-25) en route to 82 points, and the game still stayed under.
That result came about for two reasons.
The first is that Duke’s defense is a nightmare matchup for Georgia Tech’s offense.
Yes, Duke’s defense is a nightmare for most teams. But the Blue Devils are particularly scary in ball-screen and dribble coverage with their length and switchability, and they’re impossible to beat at the rim when Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach are on the court swatting shots.
The best way to beat Duke’s dominant defense is to stretch the floor and win over the top, but even that’s not an easy task, either.
Unfortunately for them, the Yellow Jackets are a brutal spacing-and-shooting team, and they’re overly-reliant on downhill pick-and-roll dribble-penetration creation behind guard Naithan George and big man Baye Ndongo (who, for what it’s worth, was excellent in hard-roll creation against Virginia’s pack-line defense).
Predictably, Georgia Tech ran that offense right into the Blue Devil trap, scoring 17 points on 27 ball-screen sets (.63 PPP) while shooting 15-for-41 (37%) from inside the arc and 10-for-18 (56%) at the rim.
The Yellow Jackets had zero avenues to offense en route to their 56-point performance, and I expect the same thing to happen in the ACC Tournament rematch.
The second reason for the low-scoring result was tempo.
Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils are built upon transition-denial, forcing opponents to play into their methodical, 65-possession game script while grinding out possessions in the half court.
They rank 253rd nationally in adjusted tempo with the second-longest average defensive possession length (per KenPom).
In the first head-to-head matchup, the Yellow Jackets generated only six transition opportunities in a plodding, 62-possession game.
I expect another super slow, low-possession game script in the rematch.
I'm worried about Georgia Tech’s defense. The Yellow Jackets’ drop-coverage was good at denying catch-and-shoot and off-ball screening actions, but they seriously regressed during ACC play.
That’s worrisome against Duke’s motion-based, stagger-screen-heavy offense, which generates plenty of triples and drains them at a high rate.
That said, I’m starting to believe there’s something up with the rims or sight-line at the Spectrum Center. Through the first two rounds of the ACC Tournament, unders are 5-2, staying under the closing total by an average margin of almost 10 points per game.
The six teams that played on Tuesday shot a combined 20-for-117 (17%) from 3, although it was moderately better on Wednesday thanks to hot shooting nights from SMU, Stanford and North Carolina.
So, I’m willing to take a chance on Duke shooting under expectation while overwhelming Georgia Tech’s offense on the other end in a super low-possession game.
For what it’s worth, the Blue Devils have often shot under expectation away from home under Scheyer. Duke road unders are 26-13 under the third-year head coach, including 7-5 this year.
