The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the Oregon State Beavers in Corvallis, OR. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Gonzaga is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -410. The total is set at 152 points.
Here’s my Gonzaga vs. Oregon State predictions and college basketball picks for January 16, 2025.
Gonzaga vs Oregon State Prediction
My Pick: Oregon State +9.5 (Play to +9)
My Gonzaga vs Oregon State best bet is on the Beavers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Gonzaga vs Oregon State Odds
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 152 -108o / -112u | -410 |
| Oregon St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 152 -108o / -112u | +320 |
- Gonzaga vs Oregon State spread: Gonzaga -9.5
- Gonzaga vs Oregon State over/under: 152 points
- Gonzaga vs Oregon State moneyline: Gonzaga -410, Oregon St +320
- Gonzaga vs Oregon State best bet: Oregon State +9.5 (Play to +9)
Spread
I'm backing the Beavers on the spread, catching nearly double-digits as home 'dogs.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Oregon State +9.5 (Play to +9)
Gonzaga vs Oregon State College Basketball Betting Preview
After a stellar start to the season, Oregon State has started to come back to earth. The Beavers are 3-3 in their past six, with a brutal 21-point loss to Loyola Marymount, a hard-nosed 12-point loss to Nebraska and a tough overtime loss to Santa Clara.
The Beavers are still 13-4 ATS this season, with a +5.9-point average cover margin; both marks rank in the top six nationally. Wayne Tinkle has done an excellent job this year, but teams that run this hot are typically due for regression.
Meanwhile, Gonzaga has been among the least impressive teams I’ve watched this year. The Bulldogs heated up down the stretch last season, returned nearly everyone this season and added much-needed wing depth through the portal. I expected this experienced, cohesive team to be dominant.
But after drilling Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears by 38 on opening night, the Zags haven’t gotten off the mat, going 6-11 ATS since, with outright losses to West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn and UCLA.
To be fair, none of those losses are particularly “bad” ones and two came in overtime. But they haven’t beaten down the bad teams either, going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
I was genuinely scared watching Gonzaga’s 2021 team run the open court, and I hoped to feel the same way this year. Sadly, I haven’t.
Typically, the best way to beat the Zags is to slow them down in transition (specifically, Khalif Battle) and stop their actions at the rim (specifically, Graham Ike). If you can slow them down and turn them into jump shooters, you can beat the Bulldogs.
The good news is that Oregon State has a very good transition (six fast-break points per game allowed, 97th percentile) and paint (27 paint points per game allowed, 88th percentile) denial defense.
Of course, a big reason is that Tinkle mixes in a ton of zone defense, which packs it in, denies the post and allows a high 3-point rate (43%, 304th nationally).
While that sounds good against Gonzaga, the Bulldogs have generated a whopping 1.32 PPP in 44 possessions against zone this season, as Ike is a pretty stellar high-post pin to work through.
On the other end of the court, the Beavers won’t work in transition as much — they play at a snail’s pace, which could help slow the Bulldogs down.
Still, they’re similar to Gonzaga in that they’re a post-reliant offense, working almost exclusively through Michael Rataj and Parsa Fallah, who combine for nearly 30 points and 18 paint points per game. They’ve been a wildly effective offense, leading the WCC in effective field goal percentage through five conference games (59%).
I’m surprised Gonzaga’s post-defense has regressed a bit this season. Ben Gregg has been a little worse on that end, and the Bulldogs are really missing do-it-all wing defender Anton Watson.
I’m always weary of fading Gonzaga, but the Bulldogs haven't shown me they can cover significant spreads.
Meanwhile, the Beavers keep overperforming, and this is an OK schematic matchup for them.
Projections make this number slightly lower than the market, with Haslametrics, Bart Torvik and our Action PRO Model projecting this spread between six and eight. So, I think there’s a bit of value in the Beavers as home ‘dogs, especially when they have a pretty good home-court advantage (top 90 nationally).
