Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's Odds, Pick
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 138.5 -115o / -105u | +165 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 138.5 -115o / -105u | -200 |
Perhaps the most anticipated West Coast game of the season takes place on Saturday between arch-rivals, Saint Mary's and Gonzaga.
Gonzaga will be the host and has riddled of five straight wins. Meanwhile, the Gaels of Saint Mary’s are on a nine-game winning streak after a putrid start to the season.
Here's Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's odds, pick.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Gaels are one of the slowest-paced teams in college basketball. They rank in the bottom 15 in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, averaging at least 18 seconds per possession on both offense and defense.
A slow pace — paired with being weaker on the offensive end — should yield fewer points. Saint Mary’s is only shooting 32.2% from deep. It has a balanced approach of 3s and 2s, but the Gaels only have one 3-point threat over 37%.
This is one of Gonzaga’s weaker attributes defensively. Opponents are shooting a touch over 32% from outside on the Zags. They also give up plenty of attempts. Essentially, Saint Mary’s inability to consistently knock down 3s will do Gonzaga a favor.
Saint Mary’s typically wins the battle on the glass. However, in this game, the Zags will likely cut into the rebounding margin. Both teams rank in the top 70 in offensive and defensive rebounding.
Yes, Saint Mary’s is better in this area, but Gonzaga will — at the very least — limit second chances. The Gaels should do the same to Gonzaga.
Saint Mary's Gaels
Gonzaga is a bit better on offense, but the Bulldogs rarely shoot 3s and are shooting 33.5% from outside as a unit. Saint Mary’s is limiting the opposition to 32.8%, but it's also allowing the 16th-lowest 3-point attempt rate in the NCAA.
The Gaels also rank first in defensive Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality, so Gonzaga shouldn't get many deep looks.
When Gonzaga tries to take the ball inside, the Gaels should stop the Bulldogs there too. Opponents are only shooting 43.1% on the Gaels from 2-point distance, and since Gonzaga doesn't take many 3s, this will surely come into play.
Gonzaga only ranks 219th in Rim and 3 Rate offensively (ShotQuality), so it may have some trouble going up against a strong defense.
One edge the Bulldogs might have is getting to the free-throw line. They don't necessarily take a lot of free throws, but Saint Mary’s fouls consistently.
Anton Watson is one of the usual suspects at the stripe for the Zags, so he could have some scoring opportunities.
On the other end of the court, though, Gonzaga limits fouls. Saint Mary’s doesn't draw many fouls, so with this game being in Spokane, fouls may only occur often for one team.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's
Betting Pick & Prediction
Gonzaga has the offensive edge, but Saint Mary’s has an answer for the Zags’ entire approach on that end of the floor, except when fouling.
Both teams can rebound and both slow the tempo down on the defensive end.
Since neither has been too efficient from 3-point land, the under should be in play with fewer possessions in total.
Take the under here and play it down to 133. It could get ugly on the offensive end, as long as this one doesn't go to overtime.
