The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, CA. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Bulldogs are favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is also set at 151.5 points.
Here are my Gonzaga vs. San Diego State predictions and college basketball picks for November 18, 2024.
Gonzaga vs San Diego State Odds, Lines, Pick
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
- Gonzaga vs. San Diego State spread: Gonzaga -10
- Gonzaga vs. San Diego State over/under: Over 149.5
- Gonzaga vs. San Diego State moneyline: Gonzaga -600, San Diego State +400
- Gonzaga vs. San Diego State best bet: San Diego State +11.5
My Gonzaga vs San Diego State best bet is on the Aztecs spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
My Gonzaga vs San Diego State NCAAB Betting Preview
Gonzaga Basketball
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the best offensive team in the country.
No real stunner there, right? Mark Few generates elite offenses like Brian Dutcher generates elite defenses.
The Zags scored 88+ points in all three games, facing Baylor, Arizona State and UMass Lowell. They scored 1.22 PPP or more in each game; it's been a dominant showing from the opening tip to now.
They have eight main rotation players, all of which average five-plus points per game, led by the well-traveled Khalif Battle.
The main ingredient to the Zags' offensive entree is an elite floor general, which describes Ryan Nembhard perfectly. The guard is second nationally in assists this year with 10.0 dimes per night and hasn't taken more than seven shots in a game.
There truly isn't a weakness for Gonzaga's offense; it turns the ball over just 12% of the time, good for 19th nationally; posts a 61% effective field goal percentage, which is 11th nationally; and shoots 40% from 3, good for 31st nationally.
I don't see a single downside for Gonzaga's offense.
The path to Gonzaga covering this large number is by making this a full-court game. The only real problem for the Aztecs' defense is in transition, allowing 1.125 PPP defensively in transition, per Synergy.
Conversely, San Diego State is 0.597 PPP when defending in the half-court, so the Zags need the game to be at their pace and under their terms.
San Diego State Basketball
San Diego State enters as 11.5 point-home underdogs versus Gonzaga. Yes, you read that correctly. That's a pretty jarring line, even though I'm relatively low on the Aztecs.
If you wondered when San Diego State last lost at home by 11+ points, it was pre-COVID and pre-SDSU's run of dominance. It came in 2019 to the University of San Diego.
I have real worries about San Diego State, particularly on offense, and even more so if Miles Byrd is out. Byrd scored 20 points in the season-opening win over UCSD, but an ankle injury suffered in practice has him in question for this game.
While the Aztecs rank 113th in offensive efficiency (per KenPom), they rank 16th in defensive efficiency. It's not the first time a Dutcher-coached team made their money on the defensive end, but it's more extreme than in other years.
Even though JaeDon LeDee is gone, the Aztecs' frontcourt is still a strength. 7-foot shot swatter Magoon Gwath and veteran forward Jared Coleman-Jones can slow down the Zags' interior.
The key to San Diego State being a better offensive team than expected is if a trio of prized recruits hit. Last year, BJ Davis was a four-star recruit, and this year, Taj DeGourville and Pharaoh Compton were top-150 recruits nationally.
You can't discount recruits growing in Dutcher's system, particularly Davis, who scored 11 versus UCSD and 16 against a non-D-I team.
The transfer portal is great, but improving homegrown players is the best way to build a foundation in college hoops. Names like Jordan Schakel, Matt Mitchell and Nathan Mensah progressively improved each year. Perhaps Davis is the next guy to grow in-house at San Diego State.
Gonzaga vs San Diego State Betting Analysis
Still, it's not like Gonzaga is steam-rolling everybody. We already saw the Bulldogs have a nail-biting game against Arizona State, which, similar to San Diego State, plays a pair of bigs who defend.
I could see the Aztecs limiting the scoring here a bit.
I think Gonzaga wins by multiple possessions, but an 11.5-point spread indicates a blowout win in the Bulldogs' favor.
I just can't get there, even with the Aztecs already missing Reese Waters and possibly missing Byrd. KenPom's numbers even thinks the line is inflated, as he gives the Zags a 79-72 edge.
11.5 points is too many. Take the home team.
Pick: San Diego State +11.5 (Play to +10)
