The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the San Francisco Dons in San Francisco, CA. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Gonzaga is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -395. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here are my Gonzaga vs. San Francisco predictions and college basketball picks for March 1, 2025.
Gonzaga vs San Francisco Prediction
My Pick: Over 157.5
My Gonzaga vs San Francisco best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Gonzaga vs San Francisco Odds
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -108 | 157.5 -105o / -115u | -395 |
| San Francisco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 157.5 -105o / -115u | +310 |
- Gonzaga vs San Francisco spread: Gonzaga -9.5 (-108), San Francisco +9.5 (-112)
- Gonzaga vs San Francisco over/under: 157.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Gonzaga vs San Francisco moneyline: Gonzaga -395, San Francisco +310
- Gonzaga vs San Francisco best bet: Over 157.5
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I like the over, as I expect another higher-scoring game between these two.
My Pick: Over 157.5
San Francisco vs Gonzaga Betting Trends
Gonzaga vs San Francisco College Basketball Betting Preview
The winner of this game gets the 2-seed in the WCC Conference Tournament and the coveted double-bye. It’s safe to say this is a big late Saturday night game.
The first game went over the closing total despite Gonzaga shooting just 4-for-14 (28%) from deep, so I’ll happily grab the over in the rematch.
I still don’t trust San Francisco’s interior defense.
The Dons rank 10th in the WCC in 2-point defense (56%, per KenPom) while allowing 36 paint points per game (10th percentile, per CBB Analytics). They struggle against posters and rollers, which doesn’t bode well when facing Graham Ike.
Unsurprisingly, the Zags scored 52 paint points in the first meeting by shooting 19-for-32 in the high-painted area (59%). Ike dropped 18 on 8-for-14 (57%) shooting while also snagging 13 rebounds, including three on the offensive end.
I expect a similar performance in the rematch, and it could be even higher-scoring if the Bulldogs make some jumpers.
Meanwhile, I don’t trust Gonzaga’s perimeter offense. Teams can score on the Bulldogs if they ou force Ike and the frontcourt to defend in space by moving them around in the dribble handoff and pick-and-pop games.
They play a very compact defensive scheme, so they can easily be beaten over the top, and they can’t defend in isolation.
That bodes well for San Francisco, which is a perimeter-oriented, jump-shot-reliant offense that works mainly in the dribble handoff and pick-and-pop game — the Dons like to invert the floor by letting Carlton Linguard shoot it from the five, which is how teams can exploit Ike and company.
The Dons got 27 off triples in the first matchup and made a respectable nine (33%), but they have room for improvement. Most importantly, they scored 36 points on 31 on-ball screens (1.16 PPP, per Synergy) and nine points on seven off-ball screens (1.29 PPP, per Synergy).
Therefore, I expect a more competent half-court offense in the rematch.
The pace is a tad concerning, but Gonzaga managed to speed up the typically slow-paced Dons in the first matchup, as the Zags scored 19 fast-break points and forced a 70-possession game.
Altogether, we should see enough running and gunning to cash another over.
