Alabama vs Grand Canyon Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 172 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Grand Canyon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 172 -110o / -110u | +185 |
The Grand Canyon Lopes captivated America in the First Round with a win over No. 5 Saint Mary's. That was the first NCAA Tournament victory in Grand Canyon history.
Will the Lopes' journey end, or will they head to the Sweet 16? Let's dive in.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama had no issues charging past No. 13 Charleston's upset bid. The Tide responded by scoring 109 points on 36-for-60 shooting (60%) and 13-for-23 from 3 (56%).
The final score of 109-96 doesn't replicate just how good of a performance it was for Alabama, which was leading by 31 with six minutes left before Nate Oats pulled his starters.
Oats knows his team won't defend, so he's pivoted to starting four guards, with 6-foot-11 Grant Nelson at the five. The lineup is smaller than the one Alabama began the year with, but none of the bigs defend enough to warrant giving up the offensive punch Rylan Griffen or Latrell Wrightsell Jr. provides.
Fresh off a 30-point performance against Charleston, Mark Sears will look for another strong outing. The Lopes have a few different defensive weapons to throw in Sears' direction, so he'll need to use his quickness and not just focus on shooting off the dribble.
Sears scored 20+ points in the past seven games, and he's averaging over 21 points this season. It's not just some recent hot spell, as Sears is an outstanding scoring guard who also can dish it (4.5 APG).
I think Nelson and Wrightsell are the X-factors here, though. You need role players to play above their levels to win difficult NCAA tourney games, and both can pop off for big scoring nights.
Nelson is the lone interior option Oats relies on. The North Dakota State transfer averages 11.7 points per game on 49% shooting, but he only shoots 26% from 3. Nelson hitting some 3s isn't expected, but it's an added bonus.
Meanwhile, Wrightsell is a stone-cold sniper from 3, connecting on 44.9% of his shots from distance.
The Tide sometimes look like an AAU basketball team. It's not always pretty, organized or fun, and that makes them susceptible to getting upset on a bad shooting night.
This is the exact opposite style from Saint Mary's, which Grand Canyon beat in the First Round.
Grand Canyon Antelopes
This feels like a total dream spot for the Lopes. Alabama trounced several good mid-majors during the regular season — and postseason to date — but Grand Canyon isn't your traditional mid-major.
Bryce Drew brought in a ton of players with length and athleticism to shore up the defensive end. That's the calling card for Grand Canyon, and it stifled Saint Mary's.
While Alabama starts four players 6-foot-5 or smaller, Grand Canyon starts three players 6-foot-7 or taller, with the shortest being 6-foot-4. Mid-major teams traditionally don't have the height advantage over SEC programs, but GCU does.
Taking good shots is a huge key for GCU. It got too comfort with shooting early shot-clock 3s against Saint Mary's, which allowed the Gaels to push the ball in transition and cut the lead to five points. The lead quickly ballooned back to double-digits once Grand Canyon went back to attacking the glass.
The Lopes' offensive game plan should be simple: put your head down and put pressure on the rim. It'll result in one of two things: either Alabama won't stop you, or it'll foul you. Both will suffice.
With their propensity for drawing fouls and Alabama's fouling issues (329th nationally in free throws allowed), it's a dream scenario for the guys in purple.
GCU wants a lot of isolation scoring plays from its two stars — Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison. Grant-Foster scored 19.7 points per game this year en route to winning WAC Player of the Year.
He's not your regular mid-major star, though. Grant-Foster played at Kansas once upon a time and completely dominated SMC on both ends of the floor, flashing elite defensive skills, which he doesn't get enough credit for.
His length could overwhelm the smaller Bama guards.
Alabama vs Grand Canyon
Betting Prediction, Pick
Oats took joy in Yale sending Auburn home, but Alabama might join the Tigers on the couch.
Grand Canyon wants to force tough 2s or late-clock 3s, which could totally combat what the Tide want to do (run and shoot a ton of 3s before the defense gets set).
The Lopes won't let Alabama fire off uncontested 3s for 40 minutes, and Grand Canyon has the length needed to contest every shot from deep.
The biggest reason the spread sits at 5.5 (+210 ML) is the analytics adoration for Alabama.
I don't get it — since the Tide don't defend a soul — so I see a ton of value in Grand Canyon ML.
