The High Point Panthers take on the Purdue Boilermakers in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 12:40 p.m. ET on truTV.
Purdue is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here are my High Point vs. Purdue predictions and college basketball picks for March 20, 2025.
High Point Panthers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Picks
My Pick: High Point +8.5 (Play to +7)
My High Point vs Purdue best bet is on the Panthers to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
High Point vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Lines
| High Point Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 154 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 154 -110o / -110u | -360 |
- High Point vs. Purdue spread: Purdue -8, High Point +8
- High Point vs. Purdue over/under: 154
- High Point vs. Purdue moneyline: Purdue ML -360, High Point ML +280
Spread
My best bet for this game is for High Point to cover the spread. I like the Panthers down to +7.
Moneyline
I really think High Point can win straight up, so the ML is sprinkle-worthy.
Over/Under
I don't have a play on the total.
My Pick: High Point +8.5 (Play to +7)
High Point vs. Purdue NCAA Tournament Preview
High Point surged through the Big South slate without much difficulty. The Panthers lost just two games during conference play and haven't lost since Jan. 16.
The Panthers have the perfect offensive attack to dominate Purdue's brutal defense. They rank 25th in KenPom's offensive efficiency.
The main strength of High Point's offense is interior scoring, shooting 57% from 2-point range (15th nationally). Plus, it doesn't turn the ball over (15% turnover rate), grabs offensive boards on 34% of misses and ranks 53rd in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric.
Purdue might be a bit more physical than High Point, but it doesn't defend the rim at all. In fact, it has allowed teams to shoot 63% from 2 since Feb. 1.
I also see Kimani Hamilton providing a lineup conundrum for Purdue. The Boilermakers tend to start bigger with Trey Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst to help rebound. I imagine the athleticism and skill of the 6-foot-8 Hamilton forces Matt Painter to go with Camden Heide instead.
That'll create another issue — Juslin Bodo Bodo leads the sport in offensive rebounding percentage, and he'll crush Purdue on the boards.
You can question High Point's terrible defense, and that's fair. However, the Panthers have progressively improved throughout the season, jumping from 249th in defensive efficiency from Nov. 5 to Jan. 31 to 213th from Feb. 1 to now.
Can High Point continue to use its drop coverage against Purdue? It's a good question, as star Boilermakers point guard Braden Smith feasts against the drop.
But the glorious thing about the NCAA Tournament is that it's all or nothing. You win or go home.
Alan Huss is a sharp coach, and if the drop gets torched, he could switch things around to limit Smith and try making others beat them. But it's safe to cap this game knowing the dangers of High Point playing drop.
Another advantage High Point has over Purdue is depth. The Panthers are one of the richest NIL teams in the lower mid-major world, and they play 11 players 10-plus minutes per game.
Huss also isn't scared to roll with bench guys if they're playing well. So, expect a steady diet of Trae Benham — a rugged defender and shooter — and the athletic Terry Anderson to mix things up.
I don't have a lot of faith in the Boilermakers. They have the top-end talent with Smith and Kaufman-Renn and even Fletcher Loyer, but the drop-off is pretty dramatic after that. Nobody else on Purdue's roster averages more than 5.9 points per game.
That's pretty rough, and I think its another reason to back the Panthers. Even if Kaufman-Renn and Smith go off for 30 apiece, who else is making up the rest of the scoring gap? I don't know the answer, which is a bit concerning.
Kaufman-Renn is an elite post player, but he's an awful foul shooter at 64.7%. I wonder if the Panthers go to a Hack-a-Shaq approach if TKR starts cooking. He gets fouled a ton anyway, so the foul-shooting issues are noteworthy.
The number sits at High Point +8.5 — more than I expected.
With the Panthers — who I think win this game outright — getting close to double-digits, I'll gladly take the points.
