The Houston Cougars take on the Duke Blue Devils in the Final Four. Tip-off is set for 8:49 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 137 points.
Here’s my Houston vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for April 5, 2025.
Houston vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Houston +5.5 (Play to +5)
My Houston vs Duke best bet is on the Cougars spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Houston vs Duke Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -108 | 137 -108o / -113u | +200 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -113 | 137 -108o / -113u | -250 |
- Houston vs Duke spread: Duke -5
- Houston vs Duke over/under: 137 points
- Houston vs Duke moneyline: Duke -250, Houston +200
- Houston vs Duke best bet: Houston +5.5 (Play to +5)
My Houston vs Duke NCAAB Betting Preview
Since 1975, 19 teams have played a Final Four game in their home state, and seven of the previous eight have won that game, including both teams that were listed as underdogs.
In other words, Houston will benefit from playing in San Antonio here.
I'm assuming there's going to be a pretty mixed crowd, but this is still a small edge to Houston.
When I look at this game, the number is way too high from a pure numbers perspective.
Duke is a juggernaut, as it's beating teams into submission. It's pretty crazy what it did to Alabama with Cooper Flagg going just 6-of-16 from the field. But regardless, this is a couple of points too high based on my numbers.
Now, I don't this is an ideal matchup for Houston.
Duke's length is a problem for opposing teams. Just look at what the Blue Devils did to Alabama's Mark Sears, as they took the point guard out of the game because he couldn't handle their size and length.
Houston's guards aren't super long, so that length advantage could definitely be an issue for LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan.
Can the Houston guards make enough shots? Because here's the thing: You can't score in transition against Duke and you can't score at the rim.
Well, Houston doesn't try to score at the rim. You would think that Houston would focus on that area offensively — thanks to its bigs and its ability to rebound on the offensive glass — but the Cougars actually have one of the lowest rim rates in the entire country.
This is a team that loves the mid-range jumper and when it does shoot the 3, it shoots it better than anyone in the country (close to 40%).
The Coogs are going to have to make jumpers in this game, and they need a big outing from Cryer, in particular.
The Cougars are going to get their fair share of offensive rebounds, but they're not going to dominate against Duke in that area like they do against most teams.
This game is going to be played in the half court, but Duke is comfortable playing at that pace.
This is an elite half-court offense taking on an elite half-court defense, and what scares me with this play is that Duke's offense specializes in breaking traps and hitting unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s (99th percentile, per Synergy).
The Blue Devils have four players who score over 1.5 points per possession on those uncontested catch-and-shoot jumpers.
They have Flagg, who can get into the teeth of the defense and then kick it to those weak-side shooters. And Duke has those shooters and role players in spades.
If this becomes a shooting competition and Duke stops turning the ball over versus the Houston guards — who also have to make tough jumpers against length — that's worrisome for Kelvin Sampson's bunch.
I would definitely give an advantage to Duke straight up, but I think this number is way too high. Favorites have been dominating, and maybe because of that, there's some inflation in the market.
No one wants to bet against Duke, but I don't think these teams are five points apart on a neutral court.
As I mentioned, there are some things that I don't love about this matchup, but there are also some things I really like about this matchup for Houston.
I said a couple of weeks ago on our BBOC podcast that the teams with the best chance of beating Duke are Tennessee and/or Houston. They both slow the game down, limit possessions and hit 3s.
But most importantly, you need to be ultra physical across the board. We saw Clemson have some success with that against the Blue Devils, and Houston has that same edge.
This is basically "men versus kids" and it's that physicality that gives Houston an edge. Now, I've been impressed with Duke's growth over the course of the season, as it's increased its toughness level, but I think Houston can play it's offensive game here.
It's not a very complex offense, and if the Coogs start hitting jumpers, they have a good chance to keep this game tight.
You don't see this type of overinflated line too often in the Final Four.
