Houston vs Iowa State Odds, Pick
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
We head out to Ames, Iowa, in what should be a terrific Big 12 matchup. The Iowa State Cyclones will look to avenge their road loss to Oklahoma as the Houston Cougars stroll into town.
If you're a defense fanatic, this is the game to watch. The Cougars have been arguably the best defense in the nation, as it's a big reason they're 14-0 heading into this clash. However, the Clones are also one of the top teams in the country on that end of the floor.
Break out the ice bags and bandages because this is going to be a war on the floor. Here's Houston vs. Iowa State odds and a pick for Tuesday.
Houston Cougars
With their impressive unbeaten record, Kelvin Sampson's team has been hands down the most dominant team on the defensive end of the floor.
According to KenPom, the Cougars are No. 1 in the following defensive categories:
- Adjusted Efficiency
- Effective FG%
- Turnover%
- 2PT%
- Block%
- Steal%.
Meanwhile, on the offensive end, this team has been very efficient, thanks to its experienced elite backcourt. Jamal Shead and Baylor transfer LJ Cryer are shooting roughly 40% from deep combined, as they've generated most of the Cougars' offense.
This is going to be a very important test for the Cougars, as they'll be going up against a physical, long Clones team.
The one area you can really nit-pick with this Cougars team is their size; they're 331st in Average Height. They've been the smaller team in almost every game so far, but that hasn't seemed to slow them down. However, Houston is now into the meat of Big 12 play and will be on the road in a tough environment.
I don't have concerns about their defense for obvious reasons, but keep in mind: this is an extremely physical Clones team that loves to get to the foul line. The Cougars are 290th in FTA allowed per game, whereas the Clones are top-25 in the category.
The aggressive defense could get the Cougars into some trouble, although the Clones only shoot 70%, as a team, at the foul line.
On the other side of the ball, the Couguars have really been struggling at the line themselves, which could ultimately cost them in what's expected to be a close contest.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Clones suffered a tough loss at Oklahoma on Saturday, despite making a furious comeback late in the second half.
While the Cougars are an elite defensive team, I have faith in the Clones' physicality to generate some mismatches on the floor.
The player who I think is crucial is Milan Momcilovic. Momcilovic has been lethal from deep, shooting 44% on the season. If he's able to hit a few 3s early on, this should open up the rest of the floor — including the paint — for the Clones.
The Cyclones are a much better 3-point shooting team than the Cougars, so this could turn out to be a big difference-maker down the stretch.
The Clones are 89th in Adjusted Tempo, so they like to go fast on offense. I'd expect them to get out in transition as often as possible so the Cougars can't set up their half-court defense.
The free-throw line should be the Clones' best friend in this game, but as I mentioned earlier, it's been a struggle so far. Considering how foul-happy the Cougars are, this will be by far the easiest way they can accumulate cheap points on the scoreboard.
The Clones are fifth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, so they're more than capable of hanging tough with the Cougars. Since they're home, I expect the crowd to juice up their defensive efforts, which should go a long way in keeping this a close contest.
Houston vs. Iowa State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a terrific buy-low, sell-high spot. I'm going to buy the Clones at home, as this is a great spot coming off a tough road loss.
The Cougars have looked unbeatable thus far, and their defensive analytics suggest that this could be the case. However, they're due for some negative regression, according to ShotQuality.
On the flip side, it appears the Clones are due for some positive regression, as the analytics suggest they've been unlucky so far.
Since both of these teams are extremely sound on the defensive end, this has the makings of a low-scoring affair. That provides even more value on the home 'dog.
I have faith in the Clones rising up to the occasion, as their physicality is more than enough to hang tough with the Cougars. If they're cashing in on their free-throw attempts and hitting their open 3s, this smells like a potential upset.
Pick: Iowa State +3.5
ESPN Bet is now another sportsbook option to maximize your Houston vs. Iowa State action. You can now use our ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.
