The Houston Cougars take on the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence, KS. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Houston is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 126.5 points.
Here are my Houston vs. Kansas predictions and college basketball picks for January 25, 2025.
Houston vs Kansas Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 126.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 126.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- Houston vs Kansas spread: Houston -1
- Houston vs Kansas over/under: 126.5 points
- Houston vs Kansas moneyline: Houston -115, Kansas -105
- Houston vs Kansas best bet: Kansas ML +120 (Play to -110)
My Houston vs Kansas best bet is on the Jayhawks moneyline, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Houston vs Kansas NCAAB Betting Preview
What's the best way to beat Houston? Match up with its two-big systems with two of your own. That's what Kansas will look to do.
The Cougars excel at battering teams on the glass and playing tough defense. They rank 11th nationally with a 39% offensive rebounding rate. However, they're just 146th in defensive rebounding rate.
Forwards J'Wan Roberts, JoJo Tugler and Ja'Vier Francis are all hounds on the glass. Roberts is becoming more of an offensive focal point, averaging 10 points per game and shooting 55% from the field.
Houston went from a 4-3 record to winning 11 consecutive games and it just made Utah look like an NAIA school, holding the Utes to 36 points and 0.61 PPP. That elite defensive performance lifted the Cougars to No. 1 in KenPom's defensive efficiency.
I'll credit Houston for dismantling most of the Big 12 teams it's played. However, it would be foolish to ignore that Houston played just one team that projects to be an NCAA Tournament squad in those 11 games. These are all matchups the Cougars should be able to dominate.
Meanwhile, Houston will have a taller task ahead.
Keep an eye on the status of starting guard Emanuel Sharp, who missed the Cougars' last game. If he's out again, expect Terrance Arceneaux to play even more.
Offensively, Houston is the inverse of Kansas. The Cougars are a very good shooting team, connecting on 39.9% of their shots from 3, but they rank 250th in 2-point field goal percentage.
We'll see if the Coogs can shoot in Lawrence, but LJ Cryer is the biggest piece of the puzzle. He's Houston's best scorer and shooting 42% from 3.
I've been fairly critical of Kansas this year — and many of my concerns remain.
However, playing in the Phog is a totally different beast. You can counter by saying, "Well, West Virginia went into the vaunted Allen Fieldhouse and beat the Jayhawks," but Kansas is better since that loss and has the proper formula to beat Houston.
Bill Self chose an identity with this Kansas team: He's fully leaning into elite defense rather than having a good defense and a good offense.
The move is better for Kansas since Shakeel Moore adds lockdown perimeter defense. Flory Bidunga is an interior force that can relieve pressure off Hunter Dickinson, and Dajuan Harris Jr. is as good as it gets defensively.
Sometimes an injury can open the door for a better player. That happened for Bidunga when KJ Adams Jr. got hurt. The uber-athletic freshman recorded nine-plus rebounds in the last two games and blocked four shots versus TCU.
For as great as Kansas is defensively, the offensive issues are glaring. It ranks just 33rd in offensive efficiency, which is fairly low for a top-10 KenPom squad. The Jayhawks shoot 33% from 3 and take less free throws than any other team in college basketball.
That puts the Jayhawks in a tough bind. They either score a lot from 2-point range or don't score much in general. I applaud Coach Self for picking a side and leaning toward being a defensive-first team instead of blindly trusting the offense.
Dickinson and the hometown hero — Zeke Mayo — are the only two Jayhawks who average double-digit points. Dickinson catches plenty of flak, but he's an exceptional player for this Kansas team. He currently ranks third in KenPom's National Player of the Year rankings.
Meanwhile, Mayo is the most consistent Kansas shooter.
Houston vs. Kansas Betting Analysis
I'll be completely transparent. If you tell me Kansas is a home underdog ever, I'll blindly take the Jayhawks every single time.
I know that's not always the best practice, but Kansas is almost never a home' dog, so this practice is one I can rarely deploy.
I also like the matchup for Kansas, as the towering big duo should combat some of Houston's strengths and force the Coogs to make their first shot.
Pick: Kansas ML +120 (Play to -110)
