The Houston Cougars take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, OK. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Houston is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. The total is set at 136.5 points.
Here are my Houston vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college basketball picks for December 30, 2024.
Houston vs Oklahoma State Prediction
My Pick: Oklahoma State +12.5 (Play to +11)
My Houston vs Oklahoma State best bet is on the Cowboys spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Houston vs Oklahoma State Odds, Pick
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 136.5 -110 / -110 | -800 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 136.5 -110 / -110 | +550 |
- Houston vs Oklahoma State spread: Houston -11.5
- Houston vs Oklahoma State over/under: 136.5 points
- Houston vs Oklahoma State moneyline: Houston -800, Oklahoma State +550
- Houston vs Oklahoma State best bet: Oklahoma State +12.5 (Play to +11)
My Houston vs Oklahoma State College Basketball Betting Preview
Houston Basketball
Houston has largely fallen out of the public eye in the last month. Maybe that’s a good thing, as the Coogs try navigating life without point guard Jamal Shead, who was the heart and soul of Houston hoops for the last two years.
There just isn't a suitable replacement for Shead, but Milos Uzan has done fine. He averages around 8.8 points and 5.1 assists per game, but he can't pressure defenses at the rim or take the opposing point guard out of the game with his on-ball defense (like Shead did for years).
As usual, Houston is among the toughest teams in the country. While no stat can quantify toughness, you can see it by looking at a few key areas — the Cougars rank No. 3 in defensive efficiency, force turnovers on 20% of possessions and hold teams to 38% on 2s.
It's pretty tough to penetrate past the first wall of Houston's defense. Even if a team does, it's greeted by the big-bodied J'Wan Roberts, Ja'Vier Francis or JoJo Tugler. Most of Oklahoma State's guards love to drive in the half-court, so Houston can effectively eliminate the driving lanes and force the guards into jumpers.
The lone positive to losing Shead was replacing him with a better shooter. Inserting Uzan into the equation has allowed each of Houston's top four scorers to shoot 39% or better from 3.
Last year, the Coogs hit just 34% from 3, and that's risen to 41% this season. LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are the most trustworthy scorers on Houston's roster, combining for just shy of 30 points per game.
The issue for Cryer and Sharp is their inefficiency from inside the arc. Both have worse field goal percentages than 3-point percentages, and that's a result of them struggling to score from 2.
That issue isn't just them, though. It's a team-wide issue, as Houston shoots just 47% from 2.
It's also the first true road matchup of the year for Houston, which is never easy, especially in the brutal Big 12.
Oklahoma State Basketball
It’s the first Big 12 game of the Steve Lutz era in Stillwater. Lutz has his Cowboys entering league play at 8-3, but they lost all three games against KenPom top-100 teams in the non-conference. If that continues, Oklahoma State won’t have a fun time in 2025.
Lutz carried the same core principles to Oklahoma State that he used to take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Western Kentucky to the NCAA Tournament. He wants his teams to push the tempo, pressure ball-handlers and force opposing teams into tough situations.
The Cowboys' defense tends to struggle if it doesn't force turnovers. Oklahoma State gets those takeaways on 21% of its defensive possessions, which is great.
On the flip side, opponents shoot 36% from 3 and 54% from 2 against Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State needs to muddy this game up and make this a hard-fought affair.
Offensively, Oklahoma State lacks a true go-to guy, which hinders its upside. The leading scorer is Marchelus Avery with 13 points per game, but six players average seven-plus points.
Part of that is due to pace, as Oklahoma State dips deep into the rotation, with 10 regular members.
Also, the Cowboys don't have a true alpha scorer who can create tough buckets in big moments. I'd keep an eye on Bryce Thompson, though. He's been here for years and isn't afraid of the moment. He'll need to step up and score more than 10 points — his season average — if the Cowboys want to push Houston.
Another positive for Oklahoma State is it won't be buried on the glass like most teams on Houston's schedule. The Cowboys get offensive rebounds on 36% of their possessions and hold teams to a 25% offensive rebounding rate.
Houston vs. Oklahoma State Betting Analysis
I have to take the 12.5 points here. I would've considered Houston in the single digits, but I can't picture the Coogs' first road game of the year being a double-digit win.
I like Oklahoma State's ability to battle Houston on the glass, and its multitude of bodies can offset Houston's depth.
From a pure talent standpoint, Houston has the edge.
But I also think Houston is flawed. It was unflappable late in games with Shead at the controls. However, it's been a different story without him.
In each of the Cougars' three losses, they had a great chance to win late, but they couldn't make enough big-time plays. And that's where missing Shead stands out.
I think his presence will be greatly missed in Stillwater, as Houston tries to avoid the upset.
