The Houston Cougars take on the UCF Knights in Orlando, FL. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Houston is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1250. The total is set at 136.5 points.
Here are my Houston vs. UCF predictions and college basketball picks for January 18, 2025.
Houston vs UCF Prediction
My Pick: Houston -13.5
My Houston vs UCF best bet is on the Cougars spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Houston vs UCF Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -112 | 137.5 -108o / -113u | -1250 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -109 | 137.5 -108o / -113u | +700 |
- Houston vs UCF spread: Houston -13.5
- Houston vs UCF over/under: 137.5 points
- Houston vs UCF moneyline: Houston -1250, UCF +700
- Houston vs UCF best bet: Houston -13.5
Spread
I'm backing the Cougars to cover as double-digit road favorites.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
My Pick: Houston -13.5
Houston vs UCF College Basketball Betting Preview
I thought I missed an injury when I saw this line open (-11.5).
All the major projection systems make Houston a way bigger favorite at UCF on Saturday, including:
- Action PRO Model: Houston -19
- EvanMiya: Houston -17.5
- Haslametrics: Houston -18.5
- Bart Torvik: Houston -16
- KenPom: Houston -13
It turns out that the only injury to watch is the one to UCF’s Moustapha Thiam. The 7-foot-2 freshman center missed Tuesday’s matchup with Arizona State due to an undisclosed injury, and he’s currently questionable for Saturday’s matchup.
That would be a significant problem, given UCF is already a terrible defensive rebounding team that will have plenty of issues keeping J'Wan Roberts, JoJo Tugler and Ja'Vier Francis from playing volleyball with the offensive glass.
Without Thiam’s monster frame and his 3.1 defensive rebounds per game, UCF may get obliterated on the defensive boards. I don’t love this matchup for Houston’s offense, but that might not matter if the Cougars grab every missed shot, hit every put-back layup/dunk and win the shot-volume battle by 50.
On the other end of the court, UCF might not crack 50 points. The Knights score almost exclusively in transition and isolation, mainly through wing Keyshawn Hall.
Hall is probably already due for a letdown performance after dropping 40 against Arizona State, and he’ll likely see one against the best transition-denial (four fast-break points per game allowed, first nationally, per CBB Analytics) and isolation defenses (.65 ISO PPP allowed, 87th percentile, per Synergy) in the nation.
I’m worried that Houston is due for some negative shooting regression on offense (42% 3-point shooting in conference play), especially because UCF is due for some positive regression on defense (36% 3-point shooting allowed in conference play).
I’m also worried that Houston ranks third-to-last nationally in Haslametrics Away-From-Home metric, and I’m about to lay double-digits on the road with the Cougars. However, UCF ranks 351st in the site’s home-court metric, which helps explain the Knights’ 5-8 ATS record in Orlando this year.
Regardless, considering the vast disparity between the market price and the analytical projections, I can't talk myself off the Cougars. The schematic matchup is good enough, too.
