The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Kentucky Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS.
Illinois is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 167.5 points.
Here are my Illinois vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for March 23, 2025.
Illinois vs Kentucky Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 167.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 167.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
- Illinois vs Kentucky spread: Illinois -2.5, Kentucky +2.5
- Illinois vs Kentucky over/under: 167.5
- Illinois vs Kentucky moneyline: Illinois ML -140, Kentucky ML +115
- Illinois vs Kentucky best bet: Illinois ML (-130 or Better)
My Kentucky vs. Illinois best bet is on the Illini spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
My Illinois vs Kentucky Betting Preview
As with every Illinois game, the handicap depends on whether the Illini hit their jumpers.
They shot 12-for-30 (40%) from deep in their first-round matchup against Xavier en route to 86 points and a 13-point win.
For what it’s worth, the Illini have gotten healthier recently and have shot 37% from deep over the past five games, winning four.
Still, there’s always the chance they morph back into the 30% 3-point shooting team we saw for all of Big Ten play.
Kentucky shouldn’t go through too many shooting slumps. The Wildcats are among the nation’s elite spacing and shot-making squads, especially now that Lamont Butler has returned to the backcourt alongside Otega Oweh.
That said, all shooting variance being equal, I’d back Illinois to win.
Kentucky’s ball-screen coverage defense is borderline atrocious (.94 PPP allowed, 20th percentile, per Synergy), and the Wildcats allow plenty of jumpers over the top (44% 3-point rate allowed, 318th nationally, per KenPom).
So, Illinois should be able to run its spread pick-and-roll attack uninhibited — few teams nationally run those sets more than Illinois (33 possessions per game, second nationally behind Wyoming, per Synergy).
At its best, the Kasparas Jakucionis-Tomislav Ivisic ball-screen sets are unstoppable.
On the other end of the court, Kentucky will run a four-around-one motion-based offense centered around Amari Williams in dribble hand-off sets.
As mentioned, the Wildcats are an elite spacing-and-shooting squad.
But Illinois is a rock-solid drop-coverage squad that’s elite at preventing rim-and-3 opportunities (73% allowed, third nationally, per ShotQuality) and catch-and-shoot jumpers (16 per game allowed, 46th-fewest nationally, per Synergy).
Illinois isn’t a good dribble handoff defense, but it’ll be hard for Kentucky to generate those all-important motion-based jumpers it depends on.
So, I expect Illinois to operate slightly more efficiently in the half court, granted the Illini don’t flail from 3-point range.
The Illini should also have a decent-sized shot-volume edge.
Neither team forces turnovers, but the Illini are the much better two-way rebounding squad (they crush the offensive glass) and are much better at foul avoidance.
While I don’t think this matters, it’s worth mentioning that the Big Ten has been dominant in this tournament. Can we continue banking on Big Ten supremacy in this year’s event?
My Pick: Illinois ML (-130 or Better)
