The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. The total is set at 156 points.
Here are my Illinois vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for January 19, 2025.
Illinois vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Illinois +3.5 (Play to +2)
My Illinois vs Michigan State best bet is on the Fighting Illini spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs Michigan State Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -108 | 156 -110 / -110 | +140 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -112 | 156 -110 / -110 | -166 |
- Illinois vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -3
- Illinois vs Michigan State over/under: 156 points
- Illinois vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State -166, Illinois +140,
- Illinois vs Michigan State best bet: Illinois +3.5 (Play to +2)
Spread
I like the Illini on the spread down to +2.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Illinois +3.5 (Play to +2)
Illinois vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
Illinois Basketball
I'll be honest: From top-to-bottom, I think Illinois is the team to beat in the Big Ten, even in East Lansing.
I still don't think Illinois has reached its ceiling, as it shoots 32% from 3 despite attempting those shots on 48% of its field goal attempts. Even with the season-long shooting slump, the Illini rank No. 19 in KenPom's offensive efficiency.
The ability to stretch the floor at all five spots opens the floor for driving chances and rim-running opportunities, so it's not a life-or-death thing for Illinois to shoot it well.
But Illinois can run you off the floor if the shots fall from deep — just ask Oregon and Indiana.
The point guard advantage weighs in Illinois' favor, as 6-foot-7 Lithuanian Kasparas Jakucionis is among the most productive guards in the country. He can score effectively, rattling off 16 points per game on 50% shooting and 41% from 3.
Rebounding is a strength for his position (5.4 per game), and his 5.4 assists also pops in the pick-and-roll game with 7-foot-2 southpaw Tomislav Ivisic.
I also think that Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous beginning to shoot it better can change Illinois' trajectory. Boswell provides value with his defense, but he shot over 40% from 3 during his days in Arizona. He should get better.
Plus, Illinois is suffocating on the defensive end; Brad Underwood's squad ranks 10th in defensive efficiency. The Illini excel at forcing teams into difficult 2-point shots, holding opponents to a 42.9% effective field goal percentage and 43% from 2-point range.
Michigan State Basketball
It feels weird that Tom Izzo has a team that can't embrace the underdog mentality, as many Spartan teams have struggled in recent years.
This year is a different story, as Michigan State enters with a dazzling 15-2 record and an unblemished 7-0 mark in Big Ten play.
Michigan State is fantastic on both ends of the floor, ranking 22nd in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive efficiency. Scoring on the Spartans' interior defense is difficult, as they hold opponents to 47% shooting from 2-point range, with Szymon Zapala, Coen Carr and Jaxon Kohler anchoring the interior.
Plus, Sparty is superb at containing the glass, ranking in the top 20 in offensive and defensive rebound rate.
I have a few concerns about Michigan State — the biggest being shooting. Michigan State losing just twice despite shooting just 28.7 from 3 is pretty incredible.
The Spartans' best shooter is freshman phenom Jase Richardson — who hits 42% from 3 — but Izzo has yet to unleash this weapon fully. Three of Michigan State's starters are total non-shooters; Jeremy Fears has just 13 attempts this year, while Zapala and Kohler don't shoot many 3s either.
I don't expect Michigan State to shoot it well, but it plays with great connectivity (fourth in assist rate) and coverts at a high clip from 2-point range and the foul line.
Another question that any data point can't answer is whether Michigan State can be a truly elite team without a clear "star."
I wouldn't call Jaden Akins a star, but he's the closest thing on the roster. He scored 13+ points in eight straight games, but nobody else on the Spartans' roster averages more than nine a night.
I feel like that'll come back to bite Michigan State eventually, but if Izzo let's Richardson get rolling, things may change a bit.
Illinois vs. Michigan State Betting Analysis
Illinois hasn't looked scared of playing road Big Ten games. It beat Oregon by 28 and beat Indiana by a million points the other day.
I'm buying into the Fighting Illini pushing the pace, forcing the Michigan State bigs onto the perimeter.
The Breslin Center is a different beast, but Michigan State's lack of shooting will sting eventually, and Illinois is due for positive regression.
I don't have the same thoughts on Michigan State — as I outlined earlier — because the roster is lean on shooting.
