The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Illinois is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -305. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here are my Illinois vs. Minnesota predictions and college basketball picks for February 8, 2025.
Illinois vs Minnesota Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Minnesota ATS & Over
My Illinois vs Minnesota best bet is on the Golden Gophers spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs Minnesota Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -108 | 145.5 -112 / -108 | -305 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -112 | 145.5 -112 / -108 | +245 |
- Illinois vs Minnesota spread: Illinois -7
- Illinois vs Minnesota over/under: 145.5 points
- Illinois vs Minnesota moneyline: Illinois -305, Minnesota +245
- Illinois vs Minnesota best bet: PASS | Lean Minnesota ATS & Over
Spread
I'm passing on this game altogether. But if I had to, I'd take the points with the home pup.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on this game altogether. But if I had to, I'd bet the over.
My Pick: PASS | Lean Minnesota ATS & Over
Illinois vs Minnesota College Basketball Betting Preview
The Illini are going through a rough stretch.
I’m starting to wonder how good — or bad — of a shooting team they really are. They’re no longer in a slump. They’ve shot 27% from 3 during conference play, including 24% since January 5, a 10-game sample size. They chucked up 28 triples against Rutgers and made six in a nine-point loss.
The Illini can fall in love with the 3, and it seems they have no recourse when the shots aren’t falling.
As currently constructed, they’re a spread pick-and-roll offense with no shooting.
Tomislav Ivisic is back from injury, and Illinois fans should be begging for some positive regression after he’s made a lackluster 2-of-10 triples since returning. He’s an elite pick-and-pop big at his best, and Minnesota has been burned by those sets this year.
In fact, Minnesota can’t stay in front of the dribble altogether, ranking last in the Big Ten in ball-screen PPP allowed — that includes the Gophers’ .93 PPP allowed to ball-screen initiators, the 10th-worst mark nationally.
So, if Illinois wants to get back on track offensively, this is a tremendous matchup.
On the other end of the court, Illinois runs a deep drop-coverage defense that funnels on-ball creation into the middle of the court.
Minnesota’s entire offense is built around Dawson Garcia as a shooter and slasher, and the Gophers spend plenty of time in the mid-range, so it’s not a bad matchup for them on paper.
Garcia has ripped apart everyone in conference play — he’s the conference’s leading scorer for a reason.
But it’s worth seeing exactly how he’s performed against other drop-coverage defenses so far this season.
- Feb. 1 vs. Washington: 28 points on 9-for-12 shooting in a three-point loss
- Jan. 16 vs. Michigan: 27 points on 10-for-23 shooting in a three-point win
- Jan. 13 @ Maryland: 21 points on 6-for-13 shooting in a six-point loss
- Jan. 10 @ Wisconsin: 22 points on 8-for-17 shooting in a 21-point loss
There’s no reason he can’t carve up another drop-coverage defense by working in isolation. I think that Illinois is a tad vulnerable in isolation if you find the right switches (.81 ISO PPP allowed, 46th percentile, per Synergy).
This is a challenging game to handicap because it’s so high variance, dependent entirely on whether Illinois makes its 3s or not. I don’t think the Illini will stop shooting.
I don’t feel comfortable wagering on this game due to its unpredictable nature.
However, I lean toward the Gophers and the over if I had to pick.
Garcia should score plenty, and Illinois isn't very good on the road — the Illini are 2-7 ATS away from home this year and rank 300th nationally in Haslametrics away-from-home metric.
However, Minnesota’s ball-screen coverage unit is dreadful, so I expect Ivisic and the Illini to be super comfortable in this matchup.
And if the Illini see any positive 3-point shooting regression, this game will fly over.
