The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Illinois is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -355. The total is set at 158 points.
Here are my Illinois vs. Rutgers predictions and college basketball picks for February 5, 2025.
Illinois vs Rutgers Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Rutgers +8.5
My Illinois vs Rutgers best bet is on the Scarlet Knights, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs Rutgers Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -108 | 158 -108o / -112u | -355 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -112 | 158 -108o / -112u | +280 |
- Illinois vs Rutgers spread: Illinois -8.5
- Illinois vs Rutgers over/under: 158 points
- Illinois vs Rutgers moneyline: Illinois -355, Rutgers +280
- Illinois vs Rutgers best bet: PASS | Lean Rutgers +8.5
Spread
I'm passing on this game altogether. But if I had to bet on this game, I'd take the points with Rutgers.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: PASS | Lean Rutgers +8.5
Illinois vs Rutgers College Basketball Betting Preview
Illinois is in a weird spot.
I’ve long thought the Illini are the best team in the Big Ten. But after losing five games in a seven-contest stretch, they might just have the highest ceiling.
Obviously, Tomislav Ivisic missed a few games, and norovirus hit the locker room hard. The Illini bounced back with a 12-point home win over Ohio State last Sunday, so perhaps they’re rounding back into form.
I have no idea what to make of Rutgers, and it’s impossible to know whether the Scarlet Knights are ever healthy. Regardless, they’re 4-7 in conference play with the third-worst offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten (104, per KenPom).
From a schematic perspective, stopping Illinois is about stopping its machine-like spread pick-and-roll offense. The Ivisic-Kasparas Jakucionis sets are often unstoppable.
Unfortunately, the Scarlet Knights’ defense is super underwhelming.
For all of his offensive wizardry, Dylan Harper (who may not even play) is a sieve when put in ball screens (1.00 PPP allowed, 16th percentile, per Synergy), and his teammates haven’t been much better (aside from Ace Bailey).
Rutgers also lost a ton of rim protection when Clifford Omoruyi darted for Alabama, and it shows in the numbers (1.17 at-the-rim points per shot allowed, 28th percentile, per Synergy).
But Rutgers can somewhat defend in the 3-point line — the Scarlet Knights lead the Big Ten in Open 3 Rate allowed (21%, per ShotQuality) — which could be huge with how often Illinois falls in love with the triple. The Illini don’t have a reasonable recourse when the jumpers aren’t falling.
On the other end, Illinois runs a strict deep-drop coverage that funnels on-ball dribble creation into the middle of the floor.
Harper is a wizard in ball-screen creation and could eat in the high-painted areas (if he plays), while Bailey is the nation’s best isolation mid-range shot creator. Those two combine for nearly 40 points per game and could easily exceed that mark in this battle.
This game has a few conflicting factors, and I’m weary of wagering on it. If I had to, I’d likely take the points with a Rutgers squad that can exploit Illinois in the middle of the floor and maybe deny the Illini’s catch-and-shoot creation.
But my biggest worry for the Scarlet Knights here is on the boards.
Illinois obliterates teams on both ends of the glass, leading the Big Ten in second-chance points per game (15, per CBB Analytics).
Meanwhile, Rutgers gets eaten alive on the glass, ranking last in the league in second-chance points per game allowed (13, per CBB Analytics).
