Purdue vs. Indiana Odds
- Odds: Indiana -2.5
- Total: 126.5
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Bloomington, Ind.
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Saturday's in-state battle pits Purdue’s road struggles against its success at Indiana. This season, the Boilermakers are just 2-6 straight-up in true road games, with the fourth-worst record against-the-spread record in college basketball (1-6-1).
However, Purdue has won the last three games at Assembly Hall, with the Hoosiers last win coming in 2016.
Who has the edge on Saturday? Let's break it down.
How Odds Moved for Indiana-Purdue
Betting action on this game has been completely one-sided, with Indiana getting 85% of bets as of 8 a.m. Saturday morning. The Hoosiers have moved from -1 to -3 as a result. — Steve Petrella
When Indiana Has the Ball
Indiana has struggled to shoot since a late-game collapse against Maryland two weeks ago. The Hoosiers may be in for some relief at home, as the Purdue defense is 12th in conference in 2-point defense.
Offensively, Indiana gets all of its points from 2-point shots and free throws. The last time Indiana faced a weak defense in the paint, the Hoosiers shot 65% from 2-point range and collected 48 rebounds against Nebraska.
Look for Indiana to pound the ball down low with Trayce Jackson-Davis, the athletic 6-foot-9 freshman who ranks top 50 in individual offensive efficiency and top 25 in free throw rate. — Collin Wilson
When Purdue Has the Ball
Purdue is riding high after consecutive victories in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers shot lights out against the two worst-rated defenses in the conference (Northwestern and Iowa).
The hot shooting may continue against an Indiana team that is 10th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency.
The Hoosiers are close to the cellar in effective field goal percentage on defense, but do carry the best defensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten.
However, the Boilermakers are the best offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten. Second chance points for Purdue is where this game will be won or lost. — Collin Wilson
Stuckey's Angles: Great Spot for Indiana
It's a good spot here for Indiana at home after a week off following three straight losses. This game could end up deciding whether or not the Hoosiers make the NCAA Tournament and if the Big Ten gets a potential record-breaking 12 teams into the dance.
Meanwhile, Purdue is coming off an absolute massacre win at home against Iowa.
Revenge will also be in the air for the Hoosiers, who were swept by Purdue last season, including one game in Bloomington in which a Matt Haarms tip-in in the final seconds gave the Boilermakers a 48-46 win in a game Indiana led 45-41 with 2:30 to go.
That marked the first time in school history that Purdue has won three straight in Assembly Hall. Purdue has actually won all five meetings over the past three seasons.
This game means so much for an Indiana team that already has three top 20 wins at home against Florida State, Ohio State and Michigan State. And that number could easily be four if not for a late collapse in a 1-point loss to Maryland.
I think the Hoosiers get it done here against a Purdue team that just hasn’t looked the same away from Mackey Arena this season.
From a matchup perspective, Purdue thrives on the offensive glass with all of its height. However, that’s also an area of strength for Indiana; both teams actually rank in the top 15 in average height nationally.
Like Collin mentioned, Purdue ranks first in offensive rebound rate in conference play but the Indiana defense also ranks first in that same category. — Stuckey
Best Bets
The line doesn’t have a ton of value at -3 now but I feel comfortable throwing Indiana in an even money moneyline parlay with BYU at home in a revenge spot against San Francisco. — Stuckey
Until Purdue shows it can cover on the road besides at Ohio, I’m fading the Boilermakers. The Hoosiers boast home wins over Florida State, Michigan State, and Ohio State, with a last-second loss to Maryland.
Purdue’s 65.8% free-throw shooting (308th nationally) will not help earn a Big Ten road cover. I’ll take Indiana up to 2.5. — Mike Randle
Pick: Indiana -2.5 or better
