Indiana State vs Michigan State Odds, Pick
| Indiana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
The Michigan State Spartans have already fallen victim to one elite mid-major team in James Madison.
Can the Indiana State Sycamores give Michigan State another scare in East Lansing on Saturday?
Here's Indiana State vs. Michigan State odds and a pick for Saturday.
Indiana State Sycamores
The Sycamores boast one of America’s best shooting attacks, shooting 41% from 3. Not only is Indiana State an elite shooting squad, but it launches from deep on 46% of field goal attempts.
Unfortunately for the Spartans, Indiana State also shoots 61% from 2-point range. The Sycamores stretch the floor with their shooting, and their speedy guards take advantage by attacking the rim efficiently.
Isaiah Swope is the main guard for the Sycamores, averaging 19 points while shooting 49% from the floor and 43% from deep. AJ Hoggard is the likely defensive assignment, based on Hoggard’s size and defensive prowess.
The other star in Terre Haute is big man Robbie Avila, a terrific player who boasts an electric pair of goggles.
Avila is the type of mid-major star we can get behind. Avila impacts the game in myriad ways, averaging 16.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists while shooting 46% from deep. Josh Schertz runs a lot of Indiana State’s offense through the sophomore big man, and he’ll drag the Spartans bigs to the 3-point line. Let’s see if Michigan State’s bigs will stay disciplined against the highly skilled Avila.
Occasionally, we’ll see an elite high-octane mid-major offense that can’t defend anybody. That’s not the case for Indiana State, whose defense ranks in the top 80 in efficiency. That’s a vast improvement from last year, and that’s part of why Indiana State is well-positioned to show the hot start isn't smoke and mirrors.
Here’s the nationally televised chance for Indiana State to capture the attention of America before conference play.
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State relies heavily on All-American caliber guard Tyson Walker, averaging over 19.8 points on 48% shooting and 37% from deep. Walker’s the engine for Tom Izzo’s offense.
The question is: who can make things easier for Walker?
There’s no clear-cut answer yet. The best bet is Hoggard or Jaden Akins, but neither has emerged as the top secondary option.
The best coaches in America adjust their style based on personnel, which is why Izzo has Michigan State shooting 3s on only 32% of possessions. Hoggard is 7-25 from deep this year, and Malik Hall is 5-25 from downtown. Those are two Michigan State starters that defenses will leave open because they can’t shoot it.
That’s partly why Tre Holloman should see more playing time moving forward. The backup point guard is shooting a blistering 45% from deep in 35 attempts. Holloman currently provides bench-spurt ability, but the Spartans need him in the starting lineup.
Michigan State’s ideal game script starts on the defensive end, as the Spartans rank 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Additionally, the Spartans bait teams into shooting perimeter jumpers, as opponents attempt 3s on 41% of defensive possessions but only make 29% of them. The Spartans excel at forcing teams into late-shot clock situations and undesirable last-second heaves.
That’s perfect for defending Indiana State’s lethal offensive attack.
Indiana State vs. Michigan State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The primary advantage for Michigan State is its length, as Indiana State runs 6-foot-7 at the four (Jayson Kent).
If the Spartans stay patient offensively, the bigs will have scoring chances against Indiana State’s lack of size. That’s precisely how Michigan State can beat Indiana State.
But does that mean Michigan State will cover the spread?
I’ll say no. I’m betting on the Trees.
Indiana State has only played one high-major opponent so far and lost by 22 at Alabama. But that's a bad matchup for Indiana State’s style of play, considering Alabama is the SEC equivalent of the Sycamores on offense.
But Michigan State won’t keep up with Indiana State’s elite shooting if the jumpers fall early and often.
So, not only am I favoring Indiana State plus the points, but it’s also a live dog situation.
Pick: Indiana State +9.5 (Play to +9)
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