The Indiana State Sycamores take on the Southern Illinois Salukis in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Southern Illinois is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -112. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Indiana State vs. Southern Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for March 6, 2025.
Indiana State vs Southern Illinois Prediction
My Pick: Over 158 or Better
My Indiana State vs Southern Illinois best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Indiana State vs Southern Illinois Odds
| Indiana St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 156.5 -115o / -105u | -108 |
| S. Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 156.5 -115o / -105u | -112 |
- Indiana State vs Southern Illinois spread: Southern Illinois -1
- Indiana State vs Southern Illinois over/under: 156.5 points
- Indiana State vs Southern Illinois moneyline: Southern Illinois -112, Indiana State -108
- Indiana State vs Southern Illinois best bet: Over 158 or Better
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm banking on the over in this head-to-head rematch from last Saturday.
My Pick: Over 158 or Better
Indiana State vs Southern Illinois College Basketball Betting Preview
Arch Madness is consistently among my favorite conference tournaments. I love all of these teams and players.
Let’s kick off my favorite league tournament with Indiana State and Southern Illinois.
The Sycamores smoked the Salukis in the only head-to-head meeting on the regular season's final day this past Saturday. Indiana State rolled to an 18-point victory, although the team did shoot 12-for-29 (41%) from deep at home.
That said, the Sycamores also shot 23-for-30 (77%) from inside the arc, including 14-for-15 (93%) at the rim.
But that’s not a surprise. Indiana State’s hub-and-spoke offense — which runs most of the offense through Jaden Daughtry in the post via handoffs, cuts and rolls — generates the nation’s highest rim-and-3 rate (95%, per ShotQuality).
Meanwhile, Southern Illinois ranks 348th nationally in rim-and-3 points per possession allowed (1.11, per ShotQuality). The Salukis struggle to contain dribble handoff, rolling and cutting sets, so this is a tough all-around matchup for their defense.
While I enjoy watching Indiana State’s offense — which resembles Josh Schertz’s offense with Robbie Avila last year — the Sycamores are super vulnerable on defense.
Southern Illinois will play somewhat like Boise State, as the Salukis will leverage their positional size to post up from all over the court.
Theoretically, that’s a good matchup against Indiana State, a brutal post-up defense (.94 PPP allowed, 18th percentile, per Synergy).
However, the Salukis managed just 11 points on 19 post-up sets in last Saturday’s head-to-head matchup, suitable for a measly .58 points per possession (per Synergy). While that could be chalked up to a tremendous defensive effort from the Sycamores, I hardly think it’s sustainable.
In fact, I think Southern Illinois is due for some game-to-game positive regression.
The Salukis shot just 5-for-18 (28%) from 3 and 18-for-33 (55%) from the charity stripe in last Saturday’s matchup. This is theoretically a good matchup for their offense against Indiana State's lousy defense, so their 77-point output in the first matchup feels low.
So, I like the over in this conference championship week matinee.
It’s always scary betting a neutral-court, early-afternoon matchup, and teams typically play a bit slower in tournament settings.
However, I expect Indiana State’s offense to work as efficiently as last Saturday, while Southern Illinois is due for a few extra buckets to fall in the rematch, ultimately resulting in an entertaining barn-burner.
