The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, Mich. Tip-off is set for 2:00 p.m. EST on Fox Sports 1.
Michigan is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -385. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for December 7, 2024.
Iowa vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -8.5
My Iowa vs Michigan best bet is on Michigan -8.5, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs. Michigan Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -385 |
- Iowa vs Michigan spread: Michigan -8.5
- Iowa vs Michigan over/under: 157.5
- Iowa vs Michigan moneyline: Iowa +300, Michigan -385
- Iowa vs Michigan best bet: Michigan -8.5
Spread
I am going to lay it with Michigan. It's a tough spot for Iowa, both via its first road game and due to possible injuries.
Moneyline
Michigan is deservedly a heavy favorite. Nothing for me here, except perhaps as part of a favorites ML parlay.
Over/Under
I have a big lean to the over 156.5 if Seydou Traore does not play. He is critical to Iowa's defense, and both teams love to run.
My Pick: Michigan -8.5
Michigan vs Iowa Betting Trends
Iowa vs Michigan College Basketball Betting Preview
Iowa Basketball
Iowa arrives in Ann Arbor with a 1-0 Big Ten record in tow… but it could very, very easily be 0-1.
In a back-and-forth battle with Northwestern in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes found themselves down 79-77 with 0.8 seconds remaining. Josh Dix nailed a bomb of a buzzer-beater to escape with a victory, though, prompting an emotional celebration as Iowa improved to 7-1 overall.
Now, the Hawkeyes are playing their first true road game of the season. Thus far, Iowa’s only trips outside of Iowa City are to Moline, IL (hometown of Owen Freeman and Brock Harding) and Kansas City, MO, both for neutral site contests.
Freeman is the centerpiece of the team on both ends of the court. An efficient interior scorer and a stout rim protector, Freeman is a two-way force. He’s not quite the offensive focal point that Luka Garza was – few are – but he’s a terrific fulcrum as the Hawkeyes run Fran McCaffery’s beautiful motion around the perimeter.
Iowa always has lethal long-range bombers, and this squad is no different. Payton Sandfort is the most well-known name after he nearly entered the NBA Draft, but his brother, Pryce Sandfort, and Tuesday’s hero, Dix, are equally deadly on the wing. Add in point guards Drew Thelwell and Harding, both of whom are north of 38% from deep so far, and Iowa’s offense is again a conundrum for the opposition.
Iowa is banking on its defense, taking a step forward to supplement that scoring. Freeman is the base of operation inside, but Harding and Thelwell both rank top 25 in the country in steal rate, as well. The swing piece, though, is Manhattan transfer, Seydou Traore.
A malleable 6-7 forward, Traore can defend all five positions. He’s missed three games and almost all of a fourth this year, and Iowa has been a different team on defense when he plays. Per Hoop Explorer, Iowa’s defense is 6.7 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court, adjusted for competition. His status is up in the air for this one; he appeared to have a slight limp on Tuesday.
Michigan Basketball
The Dusty May era is off to a fantastic start. Michigan won eight games all of last year; the Wolverines are already 7-1 to kick off this season. That includes important wins over Xavier and TCU in the non-conference, plus Tuesday’s triumph at Wisconsin to kick off Big Ten play.
The biggest question entering Michigan’s season was how it would look playing two seven-footers at the same time. Early returns are dazzling, as Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin have controlled the rim defensively while flourishing on the other end, thanks to their underrated mobility and Wolf’s skill level.
Per Hoop Explorer, the two have shared the court for 213 possessions. In that time, opponents are shooting a ludicrously low 42.3% at the rim. Some of that is schedule-driven, but in 89 possessions against top 100 foes, that number actually drops to 34.8%. That interior no-fly zone, along with the ball pressure of Rubin Jones and Nimari Burnett, has lifted Michigan to KenPom’s fifth-ranked defense in the country.
On the other end, Wolf’s ability on the ball has turned 4/5 pick-and-rolls into a steamroller of an offensive option. The Israeli big man is a tremendous passer, and his shooting stroke is potent enough to avoid cramped spacing.
The Wolverines’ guard play has been up and down. They’re shooting the lights out from the perimeter as a group, but turnovers have plagued Roddy Gayle and rookie LJ Cason. Wolf has seemingly started to clean things up, but he racked up 20 turnovers in the season’s first five contests. When Michigan gets a shot up, they are efficient (and they’re a load on the offensive glass), but sloppy decision-making can undermine the offense at times.
Iowa vs. Michigan Betting Analysis
Power conference teams playing their first difficult true road game have generally struggled this season. Considering Iowa is in that predicament – as well as coming off such an emotional win – the spot seems to favor Michigan. Granted, the Wolverines had a close win to start Big Ten play as well, but they are at least coming home to the friendly confines of the Crisler Center.
Traore’s presence is critical. He’s the Hawkeyes’ best defender, and his ability to disrupt offenses would have a profound effect on Michigan’s sometimes-shaky ball security. The quick hands of Harding and Thelwell can still shine there, but Traore’s positional versatility matters even more.
If Traore cannot go – or even if he’s limited – Michigan has a massive advantage offensively. The Wolf/Goldin pick-and-roll can force Freeman away from the basket and into space, and Iowa’s help defenders beyond Traore are poor. Michigan’s extended defense can also upset Iowa’s gorgeous ball movement; the Wolverines are top five nationally in assist rate allowed. Put differently, they force teams to score one-on-one – that is not Iowa’s strength.
The price is somewhat steep, but considering the spot and the matchup, I am willing to lay it up to -9 with the Wolverines.
