The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison, WI. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on FS1.
Wisconsin is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -280. The total is set at 162 points.
Here are my Iowa vs. Wisconsin predictions and college basketball picks for January 3, 2025.
Iowa vs Wisconsin Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 162 -110 / -110 | +230 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 162 -110 / -110 | -280 |
- Iowa vs Wisconsin spread: Wisconsin -6.5
- Iowa vs Wisconsin over/under: 162 points
- Iowa vs Wisconsin moneyline: Wisconsin -280, Iowa +230
- Iowa vs Wisconsin best bet: Wisconsin -5.5
My Iowa vs Wisconsin best bet is on the Badgers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs Wisconsin NCAAB Betting Preview
It's always been amusing that the current regimes of Iowa football and Iowa men's basketball are mirror images.
On the gridiron, the Hawkeyes are known as offensively inept, but defensively stout. On the hardwood, Fran McCaffery's Hawkeyes are the opposite.
This is McCaffery's 15th season in Iowa City. He's helmed five teams with a top-five offense nationally by KenPom's offensive efficiency metric and 11 teams ranked in the top 30 of that stat.
The other end of the floor has always been the issue. Iowa has ranked in the top-75 defensively under McCaffery just four times and has never been better than 24th. In that span, Iowa's defense has ranked better than its offense just twice, in 2011 and 2013.
This year, that's the case again. A primarily homegrown roster is built to score. The Hawkeyes are second nationally in points per game, while playing a quick but not breakneck pace.
The inside-outside combo of big man Owen Freeman and wing Payton Sandfort leads the scoring, but Iowa has a deep arsenal of options. Seven players in McCaffery's rotation average 7.5 points or more.
Six of Iowa's top seven players by minutes played per game are sinking better than 38% from long range this season. The seventh player on that list is Sandfort, arguably the best shooter on the team, whose percentage is dragged down by his volume and the difficulty of the 7.5 3s per game he's able to hoist.
Defensively, this Iowa team isn't noticeably better than some of McCaffery's past squads, though to his credit, he's at least chosen to make a thematic shift this season.
Iowa leads the nation in percentage of points allowed on 2-point baskets. That may feel like an intentional decision driven by analytics, but when a team is giving up more shots at the rim (52nd nationally) than via 2-point jumpers (212th), it more points to hard close outs on 3-point shooters, without the rim protection or help defense to stop the ensuing penetration.
Rim protection isn't Iowa's only flaw in the paint. The Hawkeyes are also getting pounded on the glass, which will only worsen.
The Badgers' season started very promising — eight straight wins, including notable victories over Arizona, UCF and Pitt, had Wisconsin flying high.
The schedule then presented a tough test, with a trip to in-state rival Marquette between Wisconsin's first two Big Ten games, versus Michigan and at Illinois.
The Badgers dropped all three games, despite holding a second half lead in each of them. None of those losses are cause for major concern, but the three-game skid certainly affects the ceiling for this team looking toward March.
The schedule will continue to test the Badgers, with a stretch of nine straight games against top-60 KenPom opponents spanning January into February.
The Badgers' ability to swim amongst those sharks will be dictated by Colorado State and Mizzou transfer John Tonje. He's been one of the most critical nabs from the portal this season, posting 19.2 points and 5.0 rebounds per game.
As competition has stiffened, and his name has been highlighted on opposing scouting reports, the season has proven tougher for Tonje. In his first eight games, he averaged 23 points per game on 53% shooting from the field. In his last five outings, Tonje has managed just 13.2 points on 32.7% shooting.
Iowa vs. Wisconsin Betting Analysis
Wisconsin isn't the best team to exploit Iowa's interior weaknesses, yet the Badgers should certainly be able to score in the paint and win on the glass.
Between Tonje's work as a driver and 7-footer Steven Crowl in the post, Iowa has its hands full stopping Wisconsin around the rim.
On the other end, you'd worry about Iowa simply outshooting the Badgers, though some shooting regression may work against that theory.
In Iowa's last three games, the Hawkeyes have hit 42% from deep, with 11 makes per game. The Hawkeyes' opponents in those contests have made just 6.3 3s per game on 26.8% shooting.
I'll trust the more reliable attack playing on its home floor.
